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2025.12.04 08:40

【Stock Market Updates】Byte's Doubao AI Phone + The Truth Behind Tencent's WeChat Ban | ZTE's Stockpile Exposed | China's Commercial Space Zhuque-3 Maiden Flight | Full Analysis of the AI Hardware Gateway Battle

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1. The Truth About ByteDance's Doubao AI Phone (Launch Price: 3499 RMB, Already Scalped in Secondary Market)

* Official price: 3499 RMB, already seeing significant premium in secondary market

* Partner ZTE Nubia (confirmed by 763 insider): These are engineering prototypes with extremely limited stock, only available to hardcore enthusiasts $ZTE(00763.HK)

* First-gen product experience is acceptable, but still needs iterations before mass production

* Tencent's WeChat blocked Doubao phone's "high-permission accessibility feature" (previously exploited by hackers for auto-transfers) on launch day, making direct WeChat login impossible

2. Why Is Breaking Into AI Hardware So Difficult?

* Fierce smartphone competition: Apple, Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo - no weak players $Apple(AAPL.US) $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)

* Super apps' moat too deep: Nearly impossible to bypass WeChat, Meta etc. $Meta Platforms(META.US)

* Current two mainstream approaches:

1. Deep AI integration within existing smartphones + super apps (Tencent/Alibaba approach) $TENCENT(00700.HK) $BABA-W(09988.HK)

2. Exploring new hardware forms (AI Pin, AR glasses, desktop robots, Li Auto smart glasses etc.)

* Ge Xiaopeng's key view: The most likely short-term winner remains the "smartphone + super app" path

3. Tencent vs Alibaba: Two Completely Different Late-Mover Strategies

Tencent's approach:

* Immediately integrates any good AI models (e.g. implemented DeepSeek's new model the next day)

* Rapidly injects AI capabilities into existing products: Tencent Meeting (auto-summary + project management), Yuanbao, MA knowledge tools etc.

* Monetization via ads, gaming, e-commerce

Alibaba's approach:

* Makes Tongyi Qianwen model completely free as "shadow" traffic driver

* Aims to attract sovereign funds and North American startups to buy Alibaba Cloud computing power

* Singapore government's switch from Meta Llama to Alibaba Cloud is prime example

4. China's Commercial Space Industry Takes Off! Full Analysis of Zhuque-3 Maiden Flight

* December 3, 2025: Maiden flight of China's first privately-developed reusable liquid rocket (Zhuque-3)

* Outcome: Satellite successfully orbited, minor issues with booster recovery (70-80 score overall)

* Building on SpaceX's shoulders with proven tech path; expects stable recovery in 1-1.5 years

* Launch costs to plummet from 150,000-200,000 RMB/kg to future thousands RMB/kg

* Launch frequency to jump from hundreds to thousands annually

* Only 60,000-70,000 LEO satellites possible - first movers win

* More maiden flights in December (Long March 12A, Tianbing Tech etc.), 2025-2026 to see intensive catalysts

* China A-share commercial space ecosystem (rockets, engines, ground equipment, satellite manufacturing etc.) deserves close attention

#tag

#ByteDoubao #AIPhone #TencentBan #AIHardwareEntry #SuperAppMoat #TencentAI #AlibabaCloudStrategy #CommercialSpace #ReusableRocket #Zhuque3 #LEOSatellite #SatelliteInternet #AShareSpace #HardTech

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