Encountered big losses and Hell Semiconductor both breaking issue prices, is Mechanism B starting to lose its charm?

As usual, strategy first.

Overall, Tianyu and Naxinwei are not worth playing, while Zhuoyue and Xiaomian are 50-50 or 40-60.

Today's grey market saw Xiaomian briefly turn green before breaking the issue price. I didn't keep an eye on Tianyu, but when I checked, it had already broken by over 10 points.

Xiaomian is the first stock I misjudged under the new rules. Here's my logic for giving it 4 stars.

It's actually simple. While the fundamentals are okay, they can't support this valuation. A market cap of 5 billion is completely detached from fundamentals. The reason for playing was betting on the Mechanism B's main players. Previously, Health 160 and Xipuni had similarly outrageous valuations but soared. I thought the high price was due to pre-negotiated terms with the main players, but it turned out to be purely a cash grab.

Well, I was on the first floor; you were in the stratosphere.

But the exit strategy is clear: sell at the open. If you don't hesitate, you might not exit in profit, but selling at around a 5% drop is manageable.

(I exited at a loss. The image above is from a fan.)

A large sell order of 16.5k shares at the open, with a hammer of 13 lots (8k shares), was likely institutional selling. Institutions exiting at a loss in the grey market strongly suggests no main players.

Adding Haiwei, there are now three Mechanism B first-marriage stocks breaking in the grey market. Compared to the ancient 套路回拨 (20% 回拨) surges and the initial 疯牛行情 of Mechanism B, the market seems disillusioned with 10% 回拨。

In my August 26 article Shuangdeng Also Bites: Are IPOs Opening High and Closing Low the New Norm? How to Exit?, I wrote:

Current IPO gains pale compared to Mechanism B's early days, with 接连破发 (including second-marriage stocks and Haiwei). That's why I've been advising to sell at the grey market open (except for Lemo Tech).

Two 破发 now likely signals a return to rationality. My future conclusions will align more with pre-reform logic, emphasizing valuation and fundamentals, generally avoiding 赌票。

The good news: no more holding-your-nose subscriptions. The bad: might miss some 主票. Those who want to 赌 can choose accordingly.

The logic is shifting from 主操盘 to 发行人高价发行割韭菜 (e.g., Naxinwei's 上限定价 FYI). Decisions require more caution.

As for Tianyu Semiconductor, the strategy noted that getting listed was already lucky—selling so high was bound to end badly.

$ JD INDUSTRIALS.HK $BAO PHARMA-B(02659.HK) $LEMO SERVICES(02539.HK) $TIANYU SEMI(02658.HK) $XIAO NOODLES(02408.HK)