Hello everyone, welcome back to "US Stock Notes"! Today is Monday, December 8.

The three major US stock indices closed slightly lower across the board, but don't be fooled by the surface calm. The current market is like the calm before the storm.

Before the fateful "Interest Rate Decision Day" on Wednesday, capital is cautiously waiting. The 10-year Treasury yield is still quietly rising, like a sword of Damocles hanging over the heads of tech stocks.

Today's market action is packed with information: Trump easing restrictions on NVIDIA, Warner Bros. being snapped up, CRWV's bond frenzy... Let's break it down one by one.

1. Powell's "Key Battle"? Wednesday as the Turning Point

The market has already fully priced in expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut.

The current market consensus is: Powell is highly likely to conduct a "hawkish rate cut" on Wednesday—while cutting rates, he will talk tough, giving no signal of further cuts in January. But as an outgoing chair, his hawkish weight is discounted. Wall Street is not only listening to what Powell says, but also pricking up its ears to hear what "Shadow Chair" Kevin Hassett says.

Hassett revealed in a CNBC interview today: Trump will announce a slew of positive economic news! This is clearly an attempt to preemptively hedge against the potential cold signals Powell may release on Wednesday. Market breadth is improving, with the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index hitting a record high last week. The rebound wave has spread from the "Magnificent Seven" to the broader market, laying the foundation for sustained gains.

But be careful! The S&P 500 has pulled back to its 10-day moving average. Volatility trading will dominate ahead of Wednesday, with options traders expecting intraday volatility of 1.3%. Therefore, on the eve of the decision, "watch more, act less" is the wisest choice. Don't try to guess the flip of a coin. If it breaks above the previous high of 6,920 on Wednesday, the next target is 7,165-7,210. If it falls, don't rush to buy the dip—wait and see, as it could drop further. A break below the 50-day moving average could lead to a test of the 6,500-6,550 support zone.

The Nasdaq still hasn't filled the gap above. Once the gap is filled, the Nasdaq will face resistance at its previous high. If the rally is too fast, it could trigger short-term profit-taking, attracting short sellers. That's why big money is choosing "controlled, gentle probing"—this is the "grinding trend" you're seeing. What's the essence? This is actually a "shakeout" in a strong range. Filling the gap is only a matter of time; a break below the 50-day moving average is the real trend reversal signal.

2. The AI Battlefield: Trump's "Pardon" and NVIDIA's Frenzy—Explosive Good News!

The AI sector is undoubtedly the brightest star this week!

Trump posted that he will issue an AI single-rule executive order this week, unifying federal approval processes and ending state-level legislative chaos. This means that in the future, AI infrastructure projects won't have to run around to each state—federal-level approval will suffice! For tech giants, this is a real "acceleration package." This will also directly reduce compliance costs for tech companies and accelerate their growth. Previously, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang complained that US AI infrastructure was too slow, risking being overtaken by foreign competitors. It seems Huang's words were heard.

Media reports also revealed that the US Commerce Department has opened up exports of NVIDIA's H200 chips to China! The news, NVIDIA's stock surged intraday. Trump also announced this on social media on the 8th, likely reflecting his "businessman mindset." NVIDIA's stock closing above its monthly moving average today is a good sign! Next step: the stock will challenge the 50-day moving average and then test the 200 resistance level.

Additionally, Broadcom and Oracle earnings are coming up. Oracle reports on Wednesday, Broadcom on Thursday. Latest news today: Microsoft is negotiating with Broadcom to customize AI chips for data centers and cloud service clusters. Broadcom is becoming an increasingly critical supplier—this earnings wave could lift the AI sector!

3. The Capital Drama: Who's Snatching Warner Bros. (WBD)?

Today, Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) was the hot ticket, soaring 10.4%!

A Hollywood-level "Game of Thrones" is unfolding: Paramount launched a hostile takeover bid at $30/share, competing with Netflix. Trump publicly stated that if Netflix acquires WBD, its market share would be too large, potentially creating a monopoly, and he would personally intervene in the review. As is well known, Netflix leans left, and both Trump and Musk "can't stand" it. Now, with Trump's family backing Paramount (Paramount's financing comes from his son-in-law's company), this acquisition battle is already tinged with political overtones.

This isn't just a business competition—it's mixed with politics. What does this mean? The deal process could be complicated, even at risk of failure. But for WBD, having multiple suitors is a short-term positive. If the bidding war ultimately fails, the competition could still drive up the price.

4. Stock Spotlight: CFLT Soars, MRVL Shorted, NEE Wins Big

On the stock front, rumors suggest IBM is in advanced talks with data streaming platform Confluent (CFLT) for a ~$11B deal. CFLT surged 29% on the news! Big tech's scramble for core data resources is heating up. For IBM, acquiring CFLT strengthens its enterprise data and infrastructure footprint, aligning with the broader trend of big tech competing for data streaming and cloud services.

Marvell (MRVL) faced bearish sentiment as Benchmark downgraded it from Buy to Hold, citing MRVL's loss to Alchip in Amazon's in-house chip design business. This downgrade may spark debate, as MRVL just last week assured on its earnings call that Amazon hadn't cut orders. But the market isn't buying it yet. So if picking stocks, Broadcom, the leader in this space, is still the safer bet—second-tier players often face all sorts of issues.

NEE, the world's highest-valued utility stock, announced a mega-long-term deal with Google and Meta to provide gigawatt-scale clean energy, raised its 2025-2026 profit outlook, and pledged 10% annual dividend growth. But the stock disappointed, rising over 3.6% pre-market only to close down over 3.1%. Surprising? From a long-term fundamental view, this is positive news, but it's all distant promises for 2026-2028, with high uncertainty. The high-open, low-close is classic "buy the rumor, sell the news." But this is also an opportunity—if it pulls back to reasonable valuations, NEE is still worth considering (clean energy + AI infrastructure is the future).

5. Conclusion: Hold Your Chips, Don't Bet Lightly

"The rate-cut tide is receding, and the real test begins. This is no longer the era where 'those with money and time make money,' but rather 'those with information and decision-making speed make money.' Wednesday's 1.3% intraday swing is the market's test paper—the choice is yours."

So before Wednesday, hold your chips and don't bet lightly. After the storm passes is the best time to pick up bargains (or flee).

If you have any questions about US stocks or unique insights on specific sectors, feel free to leave a comment. Please like, share, and follow "US Stock Notes" for more in-depth market analysis. See you tomorrow!

PS: This content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks—invest wisely.