Watch more, move less, wait for the opportunity!!

$SentinelOne(S.US)hanghai Composite Index sh000001$ This market is a master at taming all kinds of defiance. Every time you're full of ambition and ready to make a big move, the market often gives you a harsh lesson.

Look, for two consecutive days, the trading volume increased the day before yesterday. At this point, some people might start fantasizing about a market reversal, right? But then yesterday, you got a hard slap in the face.

Although the index didn't drop much, individual stocks suffered, and the damage was quite severe. The key is that market sentiment was doused with cold water, and trading volume started shrinking again.

Right now, funds are on the sidelines, waiting for the U.S. news to settle. So, the current market movement is still reasonable, and the index shouldn't face major risks in the short term.

The market barely recovered for two days, only to fall back into its old pattern, with a full 3,800 stocks declining. The ones rising were the front-runners in commercial aerospace with quantitative trading and the front-runners in the tech sector favored by institutions. This market performance is just too extreme!

As I mentioned earlier, after the index filled the gap upward, there really isn't much more upside expectation in the short term. For the next time, the index will likely continue oscillating within this range. However, market sentiment does have a chance to recover.

As long as everyone grasps the rhythm of market lows and index levels, there's a high probability of another rebound opportunity. So, be patient and manage your positions well.

Recently, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have been relatively weak. The external reasons include the fluctuating expectations of U.S. rate cuts and the yen's rate hikes, which have affected market liquidity.

After seeing the situation clearly, the thinking becomes clearer. In the short term, with so many uncertainties weighing down, the market will probably continue to oscillate. This adjustment process is quite grinding. Although there's no risk of a major index drop, from a "trinity" perspective, the adjustment isn't over yet.

Some policy changes or fund flows might alter the daily trend structure, but from a weekly perspective, it might still need to meet the "trinity" requirements, possibly leading to a second test of the 3,800-point level.

The oscillation range for individual stocks is even larger. At this point, you must keep some cash on hand. If market volatility intensifies, an opportunity to pick up bargains might just appear. From a medium-term perspective, if the U.S. gets a dovish chair next year and expands its balance sheet again, the general direction of loose liquidity shouldn't change.

Additionally, the new performance benchmark rules have also had an impact, intensifying the phenomenon of mutual fund clustering, making the market style even more extreme. If your stocks aren't on the tech mainline, you'll likely face unconditional sell-offs recently.

I think this round of oscillating 行情 isn't over yet. Although the downside adjustment space for the index isn't large, the oscillation range for individual stocks isn't small. Everyone needs enough patience and perseverance, manage positions well, wait for the oscillation to end, and find the right timing to act.

Now, let's look at the sectors and individual stocks:

1. Commercial Aerospace
This sector had a tangled performance yesterday. The early low open was actually quite normal, but the rebound wasn't smooth because the adjustment wasn't complete before the pull-up, leading to insufficient 筹码 exchange.

For such a mainline sector, the most critical thing is to avoid a wholesale sell-off. It's healthy for the sector to have both rises and falls internally. As long as there's no collective sell-off in the short term, this sector remains 看好， and 轮动 within the sector is likely next.

2. AI Hardware
Computing hardware represented by CPO continues 刷新历史新高， with related sectors like PCB, OCS, liquid cooling, copper foil, electronic cloth, and optical chips also rising.

The news is also lively, especially the U.S. approval for NVIDIA to 开放 H200 chips to us. It's still unclear what their plan is, but it will definitely have some practical impact.

1. Positive for overseas computing branches, but marginal impact is limited
The reason it's positive for overseas branches is that after domestic companies purchase NVIDIA's H200 chips, NVIDIA will 追加 orders to Chinese companies in its supply chain, like "Yi Zhongtian." However, compared to the huge orders brought by NVIDIA's high-end chips, the proportion of domestic H200 orders won't be large, so the marginal impact of this 利好 is limited.

2. Negative for domestic computing branches, but marginal impact is also limited
Domestic computing chips now face strong competition from H200, which is negative. But data center construction has 国产化比例 requirements, and domestic companies know U.S. chips are unreliable, so they won't 大幅削减 domestic chip 采购量， making the negative marginal impact also limited.

3. Positive for data center and cloud computing companies
Cloud companies rely on data centers to provide services, and data centers need computing chips. Previously, due to "chip shortages," data center construction stalled, and giants like Alibaba and Tencent had to slow capital expenditures, while smaller cloud companies couldn't get NVIDIA or domestic chips, struggling badly. For them, having chips now can revitalize their business, so this 利好 impacts them more than overseas computing firms. Judge for yourself whether this is an opportunity or risk.

3. Fujian Sector
Recently, this sector has advanced alongside aerospace, with many stocks hitting limits daily, and the sector's 梯队 structure is intact. Stimulating news keeps coming, like yesterday's Xiamen news, suggesting the entire Fujian sector will 轮动. Either chase 突破型 front-runners or look for 低位蓄势待发标的。