Don't take all the money, this is a universal rule of the game! | Brother Dong's Notes

Dongge's Notes Issue 209:

Why go global? Because the globalization of Chinese enterprises and capital is an inevitable trend, with vast "blue ocean" opportunities. "Are kings and nobles born to rule?" There are too many Chinese who want to be bosses. This is a good thing. Of course, it will also intensify involution. The way to solve the problem is to go global and target larger markets.

How to succeed? The core lies in deep localization and profit-sharing, being realistic and flexible, knowing how to "spend money to avoid disaster" and "let everyone make money."

What does it mean for individuals? This is a fast track to achieving unconventional career development, accumulating highly competitive global experience.

How to view risks? Approach them with rational, probabilistic thinking, actively managing rather than fearing and avoiding them.

Don't go to countries with many Chinese

Don't choose industries dominated by Chinese

Don't go to countries with many Chinese, and don't choose industries dominated by Chinese. This is the most core strategic principle. Its essence is to avoid low-level involution and homogeneous competition. In "blue ocean" markets, competitive pressure is lower, profit margins are larger, and it's easier to build barriers.

Dongge talked to an old Africa hand who has been to a third of African countries. He eventually chose to start a business in an East African country, with ventures in hotels, farms, and gold mines—all successful. His key advice was: Don't go to countries with many Chinese. No matter where you start a business, don't choose industries dominated by Chinese.

Dongge also spoke with the leader of China's luggage industry. How much has the trade war affected them? He said the impact was minimal because they don't rely on the U.S. as a single market, and they have factories in Southeast Asia to export to the U.S. But many small and medium-sized manufacturing peers have been significantly affected. Ultimately, the solution is to practice the "avoid the red ocean" strategy on a broader scale—don't rely on a single market, plan ahead, and diversify risks.

Use "Chinese experience" cautiously

Many people habitually bring domestic practices overseas, which is wrong. Many use Chinese experience to launch "dimensional reduction" attacks—if a model works well domestically, they assume it will work abroad and invest heavily to replicate it quickly. For example, Chinese EV startups in Europe haven't been very successful. What works in China doesn't necessarily work there. Blindly expanding overseas operations will cost a lot in "tuition fees." Respect local retailers—stealing their market share is like killing their livelihood.

If you think something can be done but hasn't been, chances are several batches have already failed. So don't blindly apply Chinese experience. Economic development stages differ, demands differ, and premature supply-side innovation dies quickly. But there are many opportunities—traditional models can be iterated and improved using Chinese methods.

Don't take all the money

A friend on the U.S. blacklist told Dongge: Americans are still reasonable—it all comes down to interests. Issues like TikTok, which involve ideology and are nearly untouchable in China, can be negotiated in the U.S. as long as interests are properly arranged. As long as you don't escalate it into a political struggle, everything is negotiable.

So when doing business overseas, pay special attention to profit distribution. Don't take all the money. Let local stakeholders profit too. Find ways to ally with powerful players and form a "community of shared destiny." Monopolizing profits won't achieve localization; only profit-sharing ensures sustainability. Corruption overseas is normal—treat it as a lubricant or channel cost. Foreign companies faced the same when entering China.

If you want to be welcomed, operate according to local market rules. Just pleasing users isn't enough.

So when Chinese automakers go global en masse, they must find local dealers, localize production, and create jobs locally. This also means China can't monopolize global manufacturing. The globalization of Chinese industrial capital is an inevitable trend!

That's the way it is—these are the universal rules of the game!

Personal Opportunity: Overseas experience is a "fast track" for career development

If you've just graduated and your company offers an assignment in Africa, should you go? Yes, absolutely. Companies that can afford to send employees abroad aren't small.

Expatriate salaries and expenses start at 300,000 RMB/year—enough to hire 30-40 locals in Africa for manual labor. So expatriates are usually in technical or managerial roles, like managing money or projects. Only through projects can you gain experience and grow quickly. Accumulate experience, and you might get posted elsewhere as a leader, with a significant income boost.

Language skills and experience managing foreigners can only be gained through practice—this becomes a competitive edge. The globalization of Chinese enterprises is a major trend, creating urgent demand for global talent.

Any concrete cases? The founder of a project I invested in joined Huawei after graduation and was soon sent to Nigeria to pioneer the market. Later, he went to India, Southeast Asia, and Australia, overseeing regional operations. His life is rich in experience, with many connections and substantial earnings—he bought two properties in Shenzhen within a few years.

How to view risks? Don't give up eating for fear of choking

Regarding safety concerns, be objective.

Statistically, in some African cities, the chance of having your phone snatched on the street might be lower than in France or Italy. Of course, this doesn't mean you can let your guard down—few countries surpass China in safety.

Extreme cases exist, like kidnappings of business owners, often involving insider collusion. Everything has risks—like the three Chinese who froze to death hiking in Australia recently. A wise man doesn't stand under a crumbling wall—don't wander at night, and avoid dangerous areas.

Compared to 20 years ago (e.g., when Nigeria's capital airport had dirt runways and gunfire was common), safety in most of Africa has improved. Risks are manageable—stay alert and take smart precautions.

Dongge's Conclusion: A golden age has arrived

Why is now the "golden age" for Chinese capital and enterprises entering Africa?

Countries that thrive on selling resources—Australia, Norway, and a few Middle Eastern oil states—have abundant resources and small populations, making wealth easy.

If not for sanctions, Russia, backed by the EU and China, could easily reach a per capita GDP of $20,000-$30,000.

Globally, countries get rich in two main ways: high-tech manufacturing (which depends on education and talent) or selling resources (and resource-based manufacturing).

This gives us a basic judgment of future trends.

Traditional manufacturing powers like Europe face declining wealth creation due to talent gaps and industrial decline. Meanwhile, resource-rich African countries, with Chinese development and initial industrialization, will gradually escape extreme poverty...