NVIDIA is currently fluctuating around $180, let's discuss the possible stock price range for the next year

According to the current financial reporting standards, NVIDIA's EPS for the past 12 months is approximately $4.
At the current stock price of $180, this implies a TTM PE ratio of around 45x for the past year's earnings.
However, the market's true pricing is not based on this $4 EPS but rather on the earnings for the next 12 months.
The current consensus expectation is that EPS could rise from $4 to around $7 in the coming year (a 70–80% increase).
Under this assumption, $180 actually corresponds to:
• TTM perspective: 45x PE (based on the past year's $4 EPS)
• Forward perspective: ≈25x PE (based on the next year's $7 EPS)
So, from the perspective of the "next year," $180 = a valuation of around 25x, betting that NVIDIA's EPS can grow another 70–80% in the next 12 months.

Whether the stock price can rise in the coming year essentially depends on two things:

1. Whether the 2026 EPS "meets expectations" or "exceeds/misses expectations."
   o If it only reaches $6 instead of $7: On the surface, it's still growth, but compared to the "market's psychological price," it's a miss.
   o If it actually hits $7 or higher, that's just "getting the entry ticket," and doesn't necessarily mean the PE will stay at 25 or rise further.
2. At the moment the 2026 earnings report is released, the market's expectations for growth beyond 2027.
   o Still believing in 30–40% growth: Willing to maintain a PE of 30–35x or even more;
   o Expecting a drop to around 20%: The valuation midpoint will contract to 18–22x.
   We can sketch out a few simple scenarios based on "2026 EPS≈$7":
   • If the market remains very bullish, believing that high growth of around 40% can be maintained beyond 2027,
   and is willing to assign a "strong growth 45x PE," the corresponding stock price would be:
   7 × 45 ≈ $315—this scenario exists, but I think it's a bit optimistic.
   • The more probable neutral scenario, in my view:
   The market acknowledges that AI infrastructure remains in a high-growth phase, but growth naturally steps down to around 30%,
   and valuations are assigned a "moderate growth 30–35x PE," leading to a stock price of around:
   7 × 35 ≈ $245.
   This price range, under the assumption that "fundamentals roughly meet expectations and there are no major black swans," seems like a reliable midpoint.
   • If the next year sees "growth below expectations + cooling market sentiment,"
   and consensus reclassifies NVIDIA as a mature growth stock with around 20% growth, assigning a PE of less than 20x, say 18–20x: 7 × 18–20 ≈ $126–140, which seems unlikely for now.
   All of the above are just simple mathematical extrapolations based on EPS×PE.
   In reality, there will be many emotional, capital, and event-driven disturbances during this period (buybacks, positive news, options, macro factors, regulation, geopolitics, etc.).
   But for an investor like me who treats NVIDIA as a "long-term core asset," stock price movements are just surface-level; at the core, I focus on three things:
   1) The pace and intensity of AI infrastructure capital expenditures—whether the global AI data center CAPEX curve is still rising rapidly, which determines the size of the long-term demand pool and the length of the cycle;
   2) The competitive landscape and profit margin midpoint of the data center business—whether NVIDIA's position in high-end GPU/system/network/software ecosystems will be significantly eroded, and whether gross margins will stabilize at 60% or lower;
   3) Whether revenue growth, EPS, and free cash flow (FCF) growth can continue to match current and future valuation levels—if growth drops to 20% but the PE remains at 30x, that's a classic case of "valuation running too far ahead."
   In terms of execution, my personal rules are:
   • Avoid going all-in recklessly;
   • Patiently place orders in undervalued ranges I've calculated;
   • Dare to add positions against the trend when valuations are excellent and fundamentals haven't deteriorated;
   • Don't easily overturn my long-term logic for this sector due to wild price swings;
   • During extreme valuations and sentiment, dynamically adjust positions and portfolio structure to digest bubbles.
   Regularly ask myself two questions:
   • "Am I overestimating my understanding of NVIDIA and the AI sector?"
   • "Are there critical counterarguments I'm unwilling to face?"
   Only then can I have a chance to both navigate the bubbles and noise along the way and share as much as possible in the enormous rewards of the AI revolution's endgame.