Global Macro Market Watch December 12

1. China's November social financing at 2.49 trillion yuan vs. new loans of only 390 billion yuan, M2-M1 gap widens

• Social financing exceeded expectations by over 500 billion yuan, but was almost entirely driven by government and corporate bonds. RMB loans (mainly household + corporate on-balance-sheet loans) were only 390 billion yuan, down over 800 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating banks remain reluctant to lend, with credit expansion heavily reliant on non-bank channels.
• The widening M2-M1 gap = companies parking funds in time deposits (M2) rather than demand deposits (M1), showing firms are in no hurry to invest or spend, with wait-and-see sentiment still strong.
• Market interpretation: Short-term liquidity is abundant (positive for stocks and bonds), but real economy financing demand remains extremely weak, with fundamental recovery still slow.
  Impact on A-shares: Short-term sentiment boost (liquidity-driven), medium-term depends on whether credit rebounds after Chinese New Year.

2. PBOC's latest stance: RRR and rate cut tools ready for use, emphasizing "intensity, pace, timing" - the clearest easing signal in nearly 3 months. Previously saying "forceful and moderate," now directly stating "flexible and efficient use of multiple tools," effectively putting RRR/rate cuts on the table.

Market expectations: Probability of 50bp RRR cut around year-end (Dec/Jan) rises sharply, rate cuts (MLF/LPR) likely in Q1 2026.

3. 2026 voter, Chicago Fed's Goolsbee turns hawkish

He explicitly said December shouldn't see rate cuts, with pause "almost risk-free," awaiting more inflation data.

This signals renewed hawkish voices within the Fed. Markets still price >85% chance of 25bp cut on Dec 18, but if Dec 13 PPI and next week's CPI exceed expectations again, cut odds could drop fast.

Global asset impact: UST yields may keep rebounding, USD stays strong, pressuring gold and EMs.

4. Trump's AI executive order: Centralized approval mechanism

His first major tech policy after taking office, placing AI models/key projects under national oversight akin to "nuclear export controls."

Short-term negative for US AI stocks (regulatory uncertainty), positive for government-linked AI-military chains; long-term may accelerate "national team" formation in US AI.

5.BOJ likely "verbal hike, de facto dovish" next week
Will keep saying "gradual hikes if economy/wages meet expectations" but remove/dilute prior "~1% neutral rate" phrasing, leaving room to slow hikes.
Yen may weaken then stabilize short-term, positive for Japanese stocks (Nikkei +1.4% today on this expectation).

6. Ukraine peace draft: Earliest EU entry by 2027
Most concrete ceasefire roadmap yet, Putin team sees "room for discussion."

Geopolitical risk premium falling fast - oil 跌幅收窄 - global inflation pressure eases Fed pause worries slightly, a key driver of today's global risk asset rebound.

7. Indian rupee hits new record low, $2.5B capital flight
Trump threatens 60% tariffs on all BRICS, India first hit. Foreign outflows from Indian stocks for 7 straight weeks, rupee at 85.70.
EM divergence: China resilient on easing hopes, India/Brazil/Mexico suffering.

8.Lilly's oral obesity drug approval accelerated from 60 days to 1 week

FDA pressured by Trump team (rumors of RFKJr. direct call), Zepbound oral (orforglipron) could launch Q1 2026, 6 months ahead of rosiest estimates.

Lilly shares up 8% after-hours, weight-loss sector frenzy ignited.

9. US Q3 solar installations surge 20%

Developers rush before IRA tax credits phase out starting 2026, mirroring 2021 wind installation boom.

Clean energy 板块仍有 short-term tactical opportunities.

Today's core market 矛盾

Short-term: China easing hopes VS Fed hawkishness + Trump policy uncertainty

Medium-term: Geopolitical easing (oil down) + China year-end RRR/rate cut expectations gradually gaining upper hand - why A-shares rose modestly (SSE +0.41%) but with volume/margin buying/northbound inflows, HK sharper (HSI +1.75%), as "money awaits clear RRR cut signals."

Bigger variable next: Fed Dec meeting or China year-end RRR cut? Share your views!