$AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US)Longbridge hasn't given me a commentator role despite not posting much, so I'll share my thoughts on ASTS.

The main reason I don't hold ASTS is that I think its future competitive moat isn't strong enough, and its business isn't diversified enough.

First, it hasn't been commercialized yet. Building a massive satellite constellation network is very capital-intensive, and they've done multiple share offerings. I think competing with Starlink in commercialization will be very difficult.

Second, its core satellite business relies on competitor SpaceX for launches, so we often see stock drops due to launch delays - though I think this could be solved with higher launch frequency in the future.

Third, it needs to partner with telecom operators for spectrum licensing and build its own satellite base stations.

These factors make ASTS seem like a rather passive company - dependent on others for launches and telecom operators who also want to profit. I don't see as much potential in its satellite network path compared to RKLB.

On the positive side, the satellite network market is huge, and ground base stations will likely be replaced by space stations in the future. Successful commercialization at scale could generate continuous cash flow. Reference Starlink.

So why is its current market cap not low? I personally think it's due to spectrum asset scarcity, especially after SpaceX acquired EchoStar's spectrum, the market seems to have realized its spectrum assets aren't cheap.

Not investment advice!