ADM Return RateLooking at a 5-10 year time horizon, which means completely ignoring the impact of major cycles and only considering some tail risks and minor cycle factors. This pullback is far from reaching the panic threshold and can only be considered a healthy mid-term pullback so far, and even among healthy mid-term pullbacks, it's relatively small in magnitude.
However, the leverage ratio in the market is already quite high, valuations are even higher, and economic data is mediocre. Expectations for liquidity (rate cuts) can be said to be the only visible positive factor in the market. 🤔
Personally, I think the likelihood of further declines, breaking through short-term support, is quite high. If given the opportunity, I would mindlessly buy and hold. Mainly QQQ and the S&P, in addition to overweighting a few particularly favored individual stocks like $Robinhood(HOOD.US)$Coinbase(COIN.US)$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)$Adobe(ADBE.US)
Then use another 5-10% of the position to buy some hot small-cap long calls, purely as lottery tickets. Like small rockets, Super Micro Computer, etc. 🤔
$S&P 500(.SPX.US)$NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US)$NASDAQ-100(.NDX.US)
To be honest, I want to see something exciting 🤔 If we can wait a bit longer this time, wait for one or two months, then drop another 10%, clear out the leverage, and by the second quarter of next year, we can have another one-way rally like this year.
The current leverage ratio is still too high, and retail investors are very enthusiastic. When the MAG7 drops just a little, you can see two types of reactions: one is panicking and cursing, the other is eagerly buying on the spot. This means the market is already too crowded, making it unlikely to rally further.
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