Core views on recent BTC trends:

I. Overall Trend Analysis

1. Weekly Chart: Still in a bearish channel with poor short-term bearish breakout quality (choppy and unconvincing moves). Until bulls show strong signals, baseline expectation remains sideways or downward.

2. Daily Chart: After strong bearish momentum, now consolidating with balanced bull/bear odds—slightly bearish bias, forming a bear flag pattern.

3. Macro Conclusion: Higher probability of final downward wave than upward. Bears still have at least one decent downside leg.

II. Key Levels & Support/Resistance

1. Support: Weekly core support near 74K; if dips to 80K zone, becomes high-value buy area for bulls betting on 365D MA mean reversion.

2. Resistance: Daily 94K-98K (trapped bulls create short-term resistance here); 30D MA (current bear reversal level, now key resistance).

3. Potential Pivot: 100K zone (ideal scenario: if bulls weakly break here then stall, creating high-probability short opportunity).

III. Signals & Trading Logic

1. Bear Signals: Weekly trendline unbroken + daily 30D MA showing continuation—but weak bear conviction (quick covering after shorts) reduces momentum.

2. Bull Signals: Need consecutive strong weekly green candles or sustained trendline breakout to reverse bear dominance. Early dip buyers exited breakeven—may re-enter but lack confidence without retesting second low.

3. Special Note: Daily "exceeded target drop" suggests exhaustion > reversal odds.

IV. Outlook

1. Short-term (weeks): Sideways/slight downside baseline.

2. Mid-term: If tests 80K, bull trade improves; if stalls near 100K, clear bear opportunity.

3. Reversal Condition: Only forceful bull moves (trendline break + strong green candles) can shift bear control.

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