Xidi Autonomous Driving, the colder the better, adjusts 5%-20% based on heat, a company in China's commercial vehicle autonomous driving sector—(03881.HK) December 2025 new stock analysis

$CIDI(03881.HK)

Sponsors: China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Co., Ltd. CITIC Securities (International) Financing Co., Ltd. China Ping An Capital (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd.

Offer Price: HK$263.00 fixed price

Fundraising Amount: HK$1.422 billion

Total Market Cap: HK$11.517 billion

H-share Market Cap: HK$11.163 billion

Board Lot Size: 10 shares

Minimum Subscription Fee: HK$2,656.52

Subscription Period: December 11, 2025 - December 16, 2025

Grey Market Trading Date: December 18, 2025

Listing Date: December 19, 2025 (Friday)

Total H Shares Offered: 5.408 million

International Placement: 5.1376 million H shares (~95.00%)

Public Offering: 270,400 H shares (~5.00%)

Allocation Mechanism: Mechanism 18C

Interest Accrual Days: 1 day

Stabilizing Agent: CICC

Issue Ratio: 12.35%

P/E Ratio: -18.59

Company Profile:

Xidi Zhijia focuses on hard-tech innovation in the field of commercial vehicle autonomous driving, providing global customers with integrated solutions for autonomous driving, V2X (vehicle-to-everything), and intelligent perception, with a core focus on closed-environment application scenarios such as mining and logistics, committed to making transportation safer, more efficient, and more comfortable.

As a leading enterprise in China's commercial vehicle autonomous driving sector, the company's business covers three core segments: 1) Closed-environment autonomous driving technology, launching the pioneering "Metamine" solution, deeply integrating proprietary algorithms with commercial autonomous driving hardware to achieve fully unmanned mining operations and remote monitoring, solving the challenge of human/unmanned vehicle collaboration; 2) V2X products and solutions for smart transportation and smart cities, being one of the first domestic companies to commercialize V2X products; 3) Intelligent perception solutions, with its self-developed Train Autonomous Perception System (TAPS) being the only product in China to achieve independent train safety perception, meeting SIL4-level safety requirements and adaptable to various rail transit scenarios.

With solid technical capabilities, the company has achieved multiple industry milestones: According to CIC data, it ranks sixth among all commercial vehicle autonomous driving companies in China, with a market share of 5.2%; in terms of 2024 revenue, it ranks third in China's autonomous mining truck solutions market. The company delivered China's first fully unmanned pure-electric mining fleet and created the world's largest mixed-operation mining fleet—56 autonomous mining trucks working alongside approximately 500 human-driven trucks, certified by the National Institute of Metrology, China, with mining efficiency reaching 104% of manual driving and maintaining a three-year zero-safety-incident industry record.

Market recognition continues to rise, and customer scale steadily expands: From 2022 to the first half of 2025, the number of served customers increased from 44 to 152; as of June 30, 2025, the company has cumulatively delivered 304 autonomous mining trucks and 110 independent autonomous truck systems, while holding indicative orders for 357 autonomous mining trucks and 290 independent systems, with total orders reaching 647 units (sets), laying a solid foundation for future development.

In the future, Xidi Zhijia will continue to deepen core technology R&D, expanding scenarios from mining to hazardous chemical parks, smart buses, and other fields, leading the transformation of the commercial vehicle autonomous driving industry with full-stack technical capabilities and commercialization advantages.

For the three years ended December 31, 2024, and the first six months of 2024 and 2025:

Revenue: Approximately RMB 31 million, 133 million, 410 million, 258 million, and 408 million, respectively, with the first six months of 2025 up 57.87% YoY;

Gross Profit: Approximately RMB -6 million, 27 million, 101 million, 44 million, and 70 million, respectively, with the first six months of 2025 up 57.07% YoY;

R&D: Approximately RMB -111 million, -90 million, -193 million, -35 million, and -151 million, respectively, with the first six months of 2025 up 328.19% YoY;

Net Profit: Approximately RMB -263 million, -255 million, -581 million, -123 million, and -455 million, respectively, with the first six months of 2025 up 271.30% YoY;

Gross Margin: -19.30%, 20.23%, 24.74%, 17.17%, and 17.08%, respectively;

R&D Expense Ratio: 355.83%, 68.17%, 47.11%, 13.67%, and 37.08%, respectively;

Net Profit Margin: -846.85%, -192.36%, -141.66%, -47.42%, and -111.53%, respectively.

Source: LiveReport Big Data

As of June 30, 2025, the company's cash balance was RMB 186 million; operating cash flow was -RMB 208 million.

II. Cornerstone Investors

There are 5 cornerstone investors, subscribing for 38.41% of the offering.

Qianhai Kaiyuan is also a domestic public fund, participating as a cornerstone investor through QDII.

There are 12 underwriters in total

Sponsor Historical Performance:

China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Co., Ltd.

CITIC Securities (International) Financing Co., Ltd.

China Ping An Capital (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd.

2. Subscription Rate and IPO Analysis

(From AIPO)

Currently, the margin financing has been oversubscribed by 7 times, possibly due to too many recent IPOs and tight capital turnover. Margin financing may take off later. If margin financing is between 10-50 times, the clawback will be 10.00%; if it exceeds 50 times, the clawback will be 20.00%.

Subscription Rate Analysis

The required principal and financing amounts for each tier of Group A margin financing are as follows:

Group B requires a subscription amount of HK$5.32 million. The required principal and financing amounts for each tier of Group B margin financing are as follows:

According to the prospectus, based on the offer price of HK$263.00, the total estimated listing expenses are approximately HK$113 million, with a fundraising amount of approximately HK$1.422 billion, accounting for about 7.97% of the fundraising amount, which is relatively average.

Should we subscribe to this IPO? Let's analyze below:

Since its establishment in 2017, Xidi Zhijia has completed 8 rounds of financing, building a diversified capital support system through technological barriers and scenario deployment. The Series A financing in March 2018 marked a significant milestone, with Sequoia Capital China leading a $14 million investment, joined by Baidu Ventures, Legend Holdings, China Everbright, and other prominent institutions. Sequoia Capital continued to hold shares through its funds, reaching a 10.61% stake as of June 2024, becoming a core institutional investor. In subsequent rounds, New Vision Capital, Baidu Ventures, and others made additional investments, cumulatively introducing nearly 50 funds (or investment institutions), forming a strong capital endorsement network.

The C+ round in February 2024 was the final pre-IPO financing. Chengdu Ceyuan Guangyi Digital Economy Fund invested RMB 24 million to subscribe to the corresponding registered capital at a cost of RMB 235.11 per share, valuing the company at RMB 9.024 billion post-investment, setting a record in the commercial vehicle autonomous driving sector. As of the IPO, the company has raised a total of RMB 1.5 billion, primarily used for R&D and scenario expansion, supporting the development of three business lines: autonomous driving, vehicle networking, and intelligent perception. Revenue grew from RMB 31 million in 2022 to RMB 410 million in 2024, with a CAGR of 263.1%.

This IPO of Xidi Zhijia aims to raise HK$1.422 billion, with a total market cap of HK$11.517 billion and an H-share market cap of HK$11.163 billion, meeting the HK$9-10 billion threshold for Stock Connect inclusion. At the offer price, it could enter Stock Connect with minimal fluctuations, but there seems limited upside potential.

The HK$1.4 billion fundraising is relatively large, with current oversubscription at 7 times. This is an 18C IPO under Mechanism A, with a maximum clawback of 20%. If margin financing is between 10-50 times, the clawback will be 10.00%; if it exceeds 50 times, the clawback will be 20.00%. The ideal scenario is below 50 times with a 10% clawback.

If the clawback ratio increases, public subscribers may receive a large number of shares. This IPO requires caution to avoid excessive allocations. If it reaches exactly 50 times, one could receive 80 lots, with each lot costing HK$2,656, totaling HK$212,480. If there's no price stabilization or heavy selling by institutional investors, a 30% drop could result in losses equivalent to 10 profitable IPOs. Public subscribers should beware of risks.

Currently, public subscriptions face challenges: hot IPOs are hard to get, while cold IPOs allocate heavily, leading to a situation where good deals are scarce and bad deals are abundant. One major loss could outweigh gains from 10 profitable IPOs, affecting both public and institutional subscribers.

This shows that the risks of Hong Kong IPOs are increasing. Future IPOs will become more difficult, unlike the early days of the new system when most stocks surged! This has led to overconfidence among issuers, making cases like Meet Noodles' outcome more common.