Important economic data and events to watch this week (week of December 15, 2025)!

Monday (12/15):

• National Bureau of Statistics releases monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities
• State Council Information Office holds press conference on national economic performance
• Eurozone October industrial production month-on-month
• Canada November CPI month-on-month
• US December New York Fed manufacturing index
• US December NAHB housing market index
• Fed Governor Milan speaks
• FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams speaks on economic outlook
• Other US, UK, Germany manufacturing/services PMI preliminary readings, etc.

Tuesday:

• France/Germany/Eurozone December manufacturing PMI preliminary
• UK December manufacturing/services PMI preliminary
• Germany/Eurozone December ZEW economic sentiment index
• US November unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, October retail sales month-on-month
• US December S&P Global manufacturing/services PMI preliminary
• Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaks
• More PMI and employment data

Wednesday:

• US November CPI month-on-month, November retail price index month-on-month
• Germany December IFO business climate index
• Eurozone November CPI year-on-year/month-on-month final
• FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams gives opening remarks at 2025 foreign exchange market structure conference
• 2027 FOMC voter, Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on economic outlook
• China November Swift RMB share in global payments
• etc.

Thursday:

• Bank of England announces interest rate decision and meeting minutes
• ECB announces interest rate decision, ECB President Lagarde holds monetary policy press conference
• US November seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year/core CPI year-on-year, November seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month/core CPI month-on-month
• US initial jobless claims for week ending December 13
• US December Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index
• Japan November core CPI year-on-year
• UK December GfK consumer confidence index
• Germany November GfK consumer confidence index
• etc.

Friday:

• US December CB retail sales difference
• Canada October retail sales month-on-month
• Eurozone December consumer confidence index preliminary
• US December University of Michigan consumer sentiment index final
• US December one-year inflation expectation final
• US November existing home sales annualized total
• Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision
• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda holds monetary policy press conference
• Bank of Russia announces interest rate decision

Next Wednesday's risks, three potential risk points:

1. Fed hawks speak intensively
2. November US non-farm payrolls + CPI
3. Japan rate hike (current probability 75%)

Current situation analysis (December 15, 2025):

• This week is indeed the most intensive economic data week before year-end, especially US November non-farm payrolls (delayed due to government shutdown, expected Tuesday 12/16) and November CPI (Thursday 12/18), which will have major market impact.
• Bank of Japan rate decision on Friday (12/19), market currently prices ~90-98% probability of 25bp hike to 0.75% (far above the 75% mentioned), Governor Ueda has repeatedly hinted at possible action.
• Fed: Last week's (Dec 9-10) FOMC meeting concluded with 25bp cut to 3.50%-3.75%, but dot plot shows only 1 cut expected in 2026 (relatively hawkish), officials may reinforce cautious stance this week.
• Overall market risks: Stubborn inflation or strong jobs data may reinforce Fed pause expectations; yen hike expectations have pushed up JGB yields, US stocks face near-term pressure, volatility caution needed.