Gold up! Silver up!

The current gold price has surpassed the $4,300 mark, approaching historical highs with strong market sentiment. Technically, the daily K-line chart of gold futures (GCmain) shows prices in an upward channel, with the MACD indicator forming a golden cross and strong short-term momentum. Silver futures (SLmain) are also strengthening, indicating broad investor favor towards precious metals.

Future Trend Analysis:

Short-term Drivers:

• U.S. November non-farm payrolls and CPI data will influence Fed policy outlook. Weak data or easing inflation may strengthen rate cut expectations, benefiting gold.
• An unexpected rate hike by the Bank of Japan could briefly suppress gold prices, but long-term trends depend on global monetary policy divergence.

Medium-term Logic:

• Geopolitical risks (e.g., Middle East tensions, Russia-Ukraine conflict) and safe-haven demand remain core supports for gold.
• The inverse correlation between the U.S. dollar index and gold suggests further gains if the dollar weakens on Fed rate cut expectations.

Long-term Perspective:

• Central banks' continued gold reserve accumulation (2025 global central bank purchases hit record highs) underpins structural demand.
• Inflation expectations and real interest rates remain key determinants of gold's equilibrium price.

Key Risks:

1. Policy Risk: Delayed Fed rate cuts or hawkish signals may trigger gold price corrections.
2. Technical Risk: Current prices near previous resistance levels; failure to break through could lead to pullbacks.
3. Liquidity Risk: Overheated sentiment makes markets vulnerable to sudden sell-offs (e.g., geopolitical de-escalation, strong economic data).

Monitor market reactions to Friday's BoJ decision and U.S. jobs data, alongside position and volume trends for continuity signals.