Yesterday's speech by Fu Peng at the Huajian Alpha Summit, here are the key takeaways 😆:

The first two slides covered two key backgrounds:

1. The stock market fundamentally reflects efficiency (total factor productivity). What affects this efficiency isn't just productivity, but also production relations and systems. AI infrastructure mainly impacts productivity, while AI applications affect production relations.

2. The infrastructure side (NVIDIA) long ago eliminated uncertainty. Before 2022, it followed a primary market investment model - investing across entire sectors and driving up valuations. After valuations corrected, it entered a mature growth phase with market differentiation, causing sector-focused funds like Cathie Wood's ARK to underperform NVIDIA.

The third slide presents the core thesis:

1. As long as uncertainty in AI applications persists, volatility will continue rising

2. The rise would be even sharper, but each time it's suppressed by the Fed's easing policies, buying time for application development

3. But this can't last beyond next year - results must emerge next year

4. If disproven, not just NVIDIA but the entire US market, global equities, and all major asset classes would crash, dragging down the world economy