[Zhenzhuo Hong Kong Stock Market Expert] External markets improve and policies accumulate strength, Hong Kong stocks maintain range fluctuations
Hong Kong Stock Market Trends and Analysis
U.S. stocks continued to rise last Friday, with tech stocks performing well, driving the market higher after opening and maintaining an upward trend. All three major indices closed with gains. The U.S. dollar strengthened, and the 10-year Treasury yield rebounded to 4.14%. Gold prices also rose, and oil prices followed suit. Hong Kong's pre-market trading was generally positive, and the market is expected to open higher in early trading. Mainland stocks performed well last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating but ultimately rising 0.4% at the close. Trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen also increased slightly. Hong Kong stocks stabilized following the global trend, with the index opening higher last Friday but showing little change afterward. Blue-chip stocks generally rose, recording modest gains at the close, while overall trading remained subdued. With stable external sentiment, Hong Kong stocks are expected to fluctuate within a range before the holiday, hovering between 25,000 and 26,000 points.
Industry News
The People's Bank of China recently announced that new loans in the first 11 months of this year totaled 15.36 trillion yuan. Based on this, new loans in November amounted to 390 billion yuan, falling short of expectations. In the first 11 months, household loans increased by 533.3 billion yuan, with short-term loans decreasing by 732.8 billion yuan and medium- to long-term loans rising by 1.27 trillion yuan. Corporate loans increased by 14.4 trillion yuan, including 4.44 trillion yuan in short-term loans, 8.49 trillion yuan in medium- to long-term loans, and 1.31 trillion yuan in bill financing. Loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 33.2 billion yuan. At the end of November, the outstanding balance of yuan-denominated loans was 271 trillion yuan, up 6.4% year-on-year. The broad money supply (M2) balance was 336.99 trillion yuan, up 8% year-on-year. The narrow money supply (M1) balance was 112.89 trillion yuan, up 4.9% year-on-year. The circulating cash (M0) balance was 13.74 trillion yuan, up 10.6% year-on-year. In the first 11 months, yuan-denominated deposits increased by 24.73 trillion yuan. At the end of November, the outstanding balance of yuan-denominated deposits was 326.96 trillion yuan, up 7.7% year-on-year. Additionally, the cumulative increase in social financing in the first 11 months was 33.39 trillion yuan, 3.99 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. Of this, yuan-denominated loans to the real economy increased by 14.93 trillion yuan, while foreign currency loans to the real economy, converted into yuan, decreased by 136.8 billion yuan. Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, stated that to ensure smooth operations next year, the central bank will flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools, including reserve requirement ratio reductions and interest rate cuts, to manage the intensity, pace, and timing of policy implementation. The goal is to maintain ample liquidity, keep overall financing costs low, and strengthen financial support for the real economy. The central bank will dynamically assess and improve the monetary policy framework, expand the monetary policy toolkit, and enhance policy execution and transmission. It is expected that the central bank will introduce more easing policies to boost credit demand and stimulate macroeconomic performance.
Guo Jia Yao, CFA, Business Development Director, Harbor Family Office
Date: Saturday, December 20, 2025
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