Tomorrow, A-shares will usher in the first trading day of 2026

$SentinelOne(S.US)hanghai Composite Index sh000001$ Tomorrow will usher in the first trading day of A-shares in 2026. Before the holiday, the Shanghai Composite Index recorded eleven consecutive positive days, looking quite strong, but the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index have been in a volatile market, with the money-making effect actually being mediocre—except for commercial aerospace, which was hotly speculated by funds, other sectors were just rotating without much sustainability.

From the number of rising and falling stocks, it can be seen that for four consecutive days, the number of rising stocks has been fewer than the falling ones. Before the holiday, I mentioned that as long as the market continues to adjust, there is a high probability of a broad rebound later. Looking at the performance of Hong Kong and U.S. stocks on January 2, the chance of a broad rebound in A-shares tomorrow is really not small.

Of course, many friends will worry about the old habit of A-shares—'high opening, low closing'—but in the past, this has had a prerequisite: the market has already accumulated a lot of profit-taking from rebounds. For example, after the broad rise on the first day after the National Day holiday, it adjusted for two days because there had already been two days of broad rebound before the holiday, with too much profit-taking.

Returning to the current market, although there is a lot of profit-taking in sentiment and thematic stocks, the technology and financial sectors closely related to the index have hardly any profit-taking, and the overall market's money-making effect has been weak. So this time, there's no need to fear a high opening and low closing too much. Instead, it's highly likely that quantitative funds will support the market during the session, continuing the trend toward a broad rebound.

From a technical perspective, the Hang Seng Index has already stood above the 60-day moving average, which is a clear technical signal of a bull turn. The Hang Seng Tech Index is just one step away, and the key is whether Alibaba can continue to strengthen. From a trading perspective, Hong Kong stocks have already laid the preliminary foundation for stabilization and upward movement.

Overall, there's no need to panic if A-shares open high tomorrow. Focus on the financial and tech heavyweight stocks tied to the index. The main force had already approached the 4000-point mark before, and although it didn't complete the final sprint, regardless of whether the annual line can make up these thirty points, the slow bull trend shown by the market in 2025 is already set.

In 2026, the market is still worth looking forward to, with a clear major trend, but there will likely be several 'big tests' of volatility and adjustment in between—after all, the bigger the waves, the more expensive the fish. Short-term trading is actually easier to grasp. From the end of the pullback on Monday until before the Spring Festival, there will likely be a wave of spring 躁动行情， worth paying close attention to.

The main theme in December was undoubtedly commercial aerospace, but the strategic technology sector is also slowly emerging from the bottom. From semiconductors to robotics, this current phase of accumulation and volatility is actually a good opportunity to buy low-priced 筹码. After 震荡修复， the non-ferrous metals sector will also 延续之前的走势. In short: after the holiday, it will still be driven by both tech hardware and non-ferrous metals, and the 行情 won't 断。

The direction after the holiday is very clear—the core is still 围绕科技展开！ AI core computing power, commercial aerospace, and the humanoid robotics industry chain are all main themes worth 重点布局. However, a reminder: don't blindly chase 标的 that have surged in the short term. If they 跌破关键位置，止损 in time. We only take opportunities we're confident in. A new year, a new beginning—wishing all friends 账户长虹！

Now, let's talk about specific sectors and 个股机会：

First, trending tech stocks
Before the holiday, trending tech stocks were hit by a wave of selling, especially the heavyweight large-caps like Yitian 股份 in CPO and SMIC in domestic chips. Interestingly, this sell-off was on low volume. Now that we're in the annual report 博弈期， this low-volume sell-off is actually a good opportunity for left-side 布局—on one hand, betting on index 修复， and on the other, betting on 业绩兑现， with both 性价比 and 盈亏比 being high. As always, if you believe，布局 early—don't wait for the real 反弹 to 追高站岗。

As for the robotics sector, it has already shown some 雏形 of a trend but is still in the early stages. The core heavyweight is Sanhua 智控， and the 加速 trend is Wuzhou 新春. From a fundamental perspective, robotics 量产 is certain, and institutions have some consensus on this. But from a trading perspective, there's no need to rush in. Wait for a decent 分歧， and when it can withstand the 分歧 without collapsing, then focus on the core 标的 for more 稳妥。

Second, sentiment
Here, note that during the 修复 process of commercial aerospace, it is actually 分流 funds from the tech sector. If the market has a broad 反弹 tomorrow but commercial aerospace doesn't follow suit, this sector will likely enter a 反复筑顶 phase later—timing is crucial.

Also, the negative feedback from high-position stocks is becoming more obvious. At this time, pay more attention to low-position 启动 themes. For example, digital currency, which withstood 分歧 before the holiday, is positively correlated with the financial sector. If the index wants to move up, this direction will likely be 绕不开—worth 留意。

Third, robotics + AI applications
Unnoticeably, the robotics sector has already formed a small trend 依托 the five-day moving average. Of course, commercial aerospace is still the absolute main theme now, with core 标的 already starting the fifth wave. But the further 炒作 goes, the harder it is to participate，随时可能面临退潮风险—everyone should be cautious.

On the 30th before the holiday, when commercial aerospace had a 分歧， the robotics sector 逆势拉咗 a 长阳—this was actually a signal of funds trying to switch to the robotics direction during 分歧. Also, last Friday's 盘面， apart from commercial aerospace, AI applications also performed well, with related news 发酵。

For example, KIMI just completed a $500 million Series C financing, with valuation 突破 $4 billion; the New Year's message mentioned competition in AI large models; Deepseek-R2 is rumored to be released around the Spring Festival;智谱 AI listed on the HKEX, becoming the first AI model stock. These news are all adding energy to the AI applications sector.

Whether it's robotics or AI applications, these are sectors that can 承载 the imagination of institutional big money, and they've also adjusted relatively 充分前期. For friends worried about the risks of high-position commercial aerospace，不妨 look for opportunities in these low-position themes. But note: when the main theme is still present, suddenly strengthening new themes during the session are likely 轮动行情—when selecting 标的， try to pick 前排核心股 and avoid 杂毛。

As for whether to 出军费-related issues tomorrow, it's a matter of opinion. Personally, I still follow the market's own operating 规律—even if there's major 分歧 in between, it won't change the major trend.