$Circle(CRCL.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)

My trading direction this year is roughly as follows. From a macro perspective, this super interest rate cut cycle can be simply understood as a re-anchoring process of USD credit ➡️ physical assets ➡️ risk assets. The flow of money is not seeking maximum returns but the least risky carrier in the current system. Central bank rate cuts do not mean money immediately flows into the stock market; the first changes are the discount rate and risk appetite. So rising interest rates ➡️ cash flow certainty assets become more valuable, falling interest rates ➡️ long-term cash flow assets benefit the most. Money always flows to certainty first, then to elasticity.

Linearly understanding the liquidity flow sequence is cash ➡️ government bonds ➡️ credit bonds ➡️ gold ➡️ commodities ➡️ inflation hedges ➡️ BTC ➡️ tech stocks ➡️ consumer ➡️ healthcare/defensive assets ➡️ junk stocks/meme stocks ➡️ tightening deleveraging ➡️ back to cash. But the actual situation is much more complex than this, forming new event forks under different conditions, and there's also the issue of time scales.

Therefore, my trading direction this year is to choose BTC and tech stocks, after commodities and inflation hedges. It needs to be clarified that trading has reflexivity, and the rhythm of actual trading does not conflict with the logic of macro analysis.

My strategy for CRCL is cyclical SP, waiting for money to flow to the event fork node, then switching from selling PUTs to a combination of stocks + options. Minimizing holding costs as much as possible.

Not much to say about NVDA; I've elaborated on it many times before. My personal position has been held for over 3 years. Only considering CC for risk control, no other methods.

Will add a TQQQ position later, but not now. Need to wait for inflation hedges to play out before considering moving part of the position with SP.