US 'easing' on H200 chips hits a wall; TCOM tumbles late on antitrust probe | Daily News Recap

0114 | Dolphin Research Focus

🐬 Macro/Industry

1. The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China indicated positive progress in talks on the EU anti-subsidy probe into Chinese EVs. The EU will replace countervailing duties with price commitments, allowing qualifying Chinese exporters to apply for assessment and obtain tariff exemptions, aligned with WTO rules and the non-discrimination principle. This helps defuse the auto trade dispute and stabilizes supply chains, benefiting key exporters such as BYD and SAIC.

2. With CSRC approval, the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing exchanges will raise the min. margin requirement for margin purchases to 100% from 80%. Effective Jan 19 for new margin contracts only, while existing and rolled contracts follow prior rules. The August 2023 cut to 80% had boosted margin activity; this counter-cyclical move may cool overheated names in the near term and reset expectations.

🐬 Single Stocks

1.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

The U.S. Federal Register shifted export review of NVIDIA H200 chips to case-by-case from a presumption of denial, applying similar terms to AMD MI325X-class chips. Approvals will carry strict conditions including additional licensing, a 25% transaction fee, and security verification, and NVIDIA plans initial module deliveries requiring full prepayment by Chinese customers. Separately, reports say China’s General Administration of Customs informed brokers that H200 chips cannot enter the country, and authorities urged domestic tech firms to avoid non-essential purchases, with limited approvals only for special research and strict bans in sensitive projects, reinforcing a push toward domestic compute alternatives.

2.$Roblox(RBLX.US)

Roblox jumped over 10% overnight after new title ‘Escape Tsunami’ drew 43mn visits in a single day and surged up the charts, underscoring content ecosystem vitality. Bullish options flow added momentum, alongside ‘Outperform’ calls and high PTs from BMO Capital and Morgan Stanley.

3.$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)

Google unveiled MedGemma 1.5, a medical multimodal AI that supports high-dimensional imaging such as CT and MRI. With ~4bn parameters, it can run offline, delivers strong medical speech transcription accuracy, and is open-sourced for research and commercial use, lowering deployment barriers for primary care institutions.

4.$Trip.com(TCOM.US)

The State Administration for Market Regulation opened an antitrust case into Trip.com Group for suspected abuse of market dominance. The probe follows prior regulatory interviews over issues such as a ‘pricing assistant’ tool that intervened in hotel pricing and ‘pick one of two’ restrictions on merchants, now escalating to a formal case focusing on alleged unreasonable limits on merchants’ operational autonomy.

🐬 Top Gainers

A-shares: Data processing & outsourcing services, trading & payment services, cloud & data centers.

HK: Computer & electronics retailers, drug retailers, system software.

U.S.: Drug retailers, communications equipment, electronic components.

🐬 Watch Tomorrow

1. Qianwen app press event at 10:00 on Jan 15.

2. TSM to report earnings. Dolphin Research will compile and publish analysis.

3. U.S. import price index (MoM), NY Fed Manufacturing Index, and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.

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