📉 SMIC Review: The suffocating moment after extreme volume contraction, should we run or stay?

💥 【First, Stand Straight and Take the Hit】
As usual, start the review by looking at the wrong answers.
Yesterday's forecast was that $SMIC(00981.HK) would have a small "technical rebound" green candle today, but the market turned out weaker than expected. The main players chose "playing dead with shrinking volume", with a daily amplitude of only 2.3%, closing stuck at 69.80, neither reclaiming 70 nor breaking below 68. To friends who were expecting a rebound today, my apologies. The market voted with its feet, and we must respect the price action. 🙇‍♂️

🔍 【Hardcore Breakdown: The Calm Before the Storm】
Today's price action is exactly like "the last second before the pressure cooker valve pops".

Volume Halved: Turnover plummeted from 6.1 billion yesterday to 2.8 billion. This shows both bulls and bears are sharpening their bayonets in the trenches, neither daring to fire the first shot.
Moving Average Strangle: The daily close at 69.80 is precisely stuck below the MA5 (69.86) and MA10 (70.36). Overhead, the MA60 (71.60) acts as a "high-pressure red line" suppressing any rise.
Bollinger Bands Extremely Tight: The 15-minute Bollinger Bands have narrowed to their limit. Technical common sense tells us: extreme convergence is inevitably followed by abnormal divergence.

⚖️ 【Tomorrow's Script: Doomsday Roulette vs. Golden Pit】
Based on the current time cycle and chip structure, tomorrow (Friday) will be the volatility extreme point for this week. This "dead silence" won't last long; the trend change is coming tomorrow morning.

🔴 Script A: Panic Stampede (High Probability)

Logic: A prolonged stalemate must lead to a fall. If the morning session cannot break above 70.20 with volume, disappointed profit-takers and stop-loss orders will join forces. The main players will likely use the weekend effect to "dig a pit downward".
Key Level: Watch this week's low of 68.25. Once effectively broken, panic selling will gush out instantly.

🟢 Script B: Desperate Counterattack (Low Probability)

Logic: Only after completing a wave of "bloody washout" will big money enter to create a V-shaped reversal.
Opportunity Point: If a sharp drop with shrinking volume appears in the 66.50 - 67.50 range, that might be a gift from the main players to left-side traders.

🛠️ 【Operation Tips & Strict Risk Control Orders】

🗡️ Aggressive Players (Right-side Followers):

If the morning session breaks below 68.20 with volume and the bounce is weak, don't harbor illusions. This is a signal to exit short-term positions.
Defensive Level: Only stabilize above 69.00 to pause.

🛡️ Conservative Players (Left-side Ambushers):

Catching Falling Knives Warning ⚠️: Left-side trading carries extreme risk, equivalent to picking up coins on railroad tracks.
Position Control: If you want to bet on that "golden pit", position size is strictly prohibited from exceeding 20%.
Sniper Point: Place limit orders around 66.50. Remember, wait for the price to fall and hit your order; don't chase the buy.
Stop Loss: If the close breaks below 65.50, unconditionally admit the loss and exit.

💡 【Final Summary】
Candlesticks don't lie; the position at 69.80 is walking a tightrope.
Before 10:30 AM tomorrow, it is recommended to watch more, move less. Let the bullets fly for a while; don't fall in the "garbage time" before dawn.

The stock market carries risks; invest with caution. The above is only a technical review and does not constitute investment advice.