🚀 SMIC: On the Eve of a 'Systematic Shift' After the Holiday, the Battle Between Bulls and Bears Heats Up!

"When trading volume enters a vacuum zone, every footprint left by the K-line is the main force conducting a stress test." — Hidden Element Quantitative Strategy Group

📊 Current Technical Review: The "Gravitational Field" at the 70 Yuan Psychological Level

Currently, $SMIC(00981.HK) closed at 70.45, showing an extremely suppressed "saturated convergence" pattern:

Moving Average Pressure: The stock price is currently pressured below the weekly MA10 (72.40), but has the medium-to-long-term trend support of MA60 (56.00) below, compressing the price range to an extreme.
Momentum Indicators: The daily MACD green bars are converging significantly, and the RSI has returned to the neutral zone. This indicates that the previous downtrend momentum is nearly exhausted, and the market is waiting for a trigger point for a "hard pull" or a "deep dip."
Volume-Price Relationship: Volume has shrunk noticeably in recent days, typical of pre-holiday "risk-off" selling, with chips transferring from impatient short-term traders to long-term capital.

⏳ Timeline Projection: The Market Will Complete Three "System Upgrades" in These 2.5 Days

Phase 1: February 16th (Half-day on Lunar New Year's Eve) — Stress Test Liquidation Period 📉

Technical Feature: "Fingerprint market" under extremely low liquidity.
Logic: Expect a low-volume decline. With Stock Connect closed, selling pressure mainly comes from institutions adjusting positions before the holiday. The 1-hour KDJ is at a high level, possibly testing the 69.80 support level one last time intraday.
Strategy: No chasing of rallies is recommended at this stage; the market is liquidating "weak hands."

Phase 2: February 20th (Full day on the 4th day of the Lunar New Year) — Deep Washout and Bear Trap ⚡

Technical Feature: Sharp increase in volatility; a daily-level "bullish divergence" may form.
Logic: Volatility in overseas semiconductor stocks during the holiday will be released at this moment. The market may experience a "heart-stopping plunge", testing the lower Bollinger Band (around 68.50). However, this is often a "reverse operation of a bull trap"—washing out panic sellers by briefly breaking through support.
Key: Observe whether the closing price can reclaim the 70.0 psychological level.

Phase 3: February 23rd (Full day on the 7th day of the Lunar New Year) — Trend Change Confirmation Period 🚀

Technical Feature: Sudden change in the energy field's nature, with both price and volume rising.
Logic: This is the preset "system upgrade confirmation day." If the washout in the first two phases is thorough, today will leverage the expectation of post-holiday capital inflows to attack the key resistance at 71.50 with increased volume. A successful breakout would mark the official end of the month-long downtrend, signaling a reversal to the right side.

🏹 Core Trading Tactics: The Art of Balancing Left and Right

1. Left-side Ambush (Contrarian Strategy) 🛡️

Entry Point: Watch for a pullback to the 68.50 - 69.20 range on February 20th (4th day). If it holds without sustained breakdown, consider building a position.
⚠️ Risk Warning: Left-side trading is "picking up coins in front of a steamroller," facing the risk of continued downward momentum.
Position Suggestion: Keep it within 20-30% of capital, strictly enforce stop-loss (exit all positions if it breaks below 68.00).

2. Right-side Follow (Trend Following) ⚔️

Trigger Condition: On February 23rd (7th day), a high-volume breakout above 71.60 (the high on February 10th) and holding above the 1-hour MA20.
Operation: Enter at market price to capture the structural uptrend wave.
Target: Short-term target at the 74.80 - 75.50 gap area.

💡 Hidden Element Review Notes:

SMIC is currently in a critical window of "established trend disintegration and new order reorganization." Technically, we call this the "long-short energy conversion period." The core focus for the next 2.5 trading days lies in "trading time for space."

Risk Warning: Liquidity is absent during the Stock Connect closure, making the market susceptible to sudden disturbances. Position sizing is a trader's bottom line; avoid heavy betting before the direction is clear.