On-chain data points to the same conclusion: we're back in the middle of the 2022 bear market.

Article source: Bitcoin Orange Trader

If you have experienced the complete cycle of the previous round,
you would recognize the current market state.
The market is still fluctuating,
but the force driving it forward has clearly weakened.

Transactions are occurring,
but it's hard to see continuous buying pressure.
Prices are oscillating up and down,
yet the market seems to have had its momentum drained away.

The signals from on-chain data, capital flows, and derivative structures are becoming increasingly consistent:

The market is entering a structural phase similar to the mid-stage of the 2022 bear market.

That is not the lowest point,
but it is the most patience-testing phase.

1. Price Trapped Between Key Cost Structures

The current structure is very clear:

≈ 79k: True market average

≈ 55k: Network-wide realized cost
Failing to hold above the average means the market has not yet regained strength.
Breaking below the cost zone may trigger deeper risk release.

A similar structure also appeared in mid-2022, when prices oscillated repeatedly within the cost range until new demand gradually absorbed supply.

In the absence of extreme shocks, the market is more likely to continue range-bound oscillation, completing the bottoming process through time.

2. 60k–72k: The Market's Current Absorption Zone

This is the dense trading zone formed in the first half of 2024, once again becoming a key absorption band.

The chips bought back then are still holding firm, indicating that this zone has real demand support.
As long as absorption continues:

→ The market is building a bottom structure

If lost:

→ The deleveraging process may escalate further

This zone is essentially a confidence test area.

3. Upper Supply Zone Forms Sustained Pressure

The main pressure comes from concentrated trapped positions:

82k–97k

100k–117k

When prices rebound into these zones, trapped holders tend to sell, absorbing upward momentum.

On-chain cost distribution shows that dense cost areas often form long-term supply bands, limiting trend continuation.

This is a market structure behavior, not short-term manipulation.

4. Insufficient New Capital Relay

The profit ratio of short-term holders is at low levels, indicating that recent incoming capital is generally losing money.

Uptrends usually rely on new capital relay, but currently:

New entrants are losing
Old capital is on the sidelines
Speculative capital is receding

There is a lack of driving force for the rise.

5. Institutional Capital is Reducing Risk Exposure

Since early 2026, ETFs have seen continuous net outflows, with the cumulative scale reaching the tens of billions of dollars level.

Institutional holding costs are generally higher than the current price, and the floating loss state dampens willingness for new allocations.

ETFs constituted a stable source of demand over the past two years; their outflow now means a clear weakening on the demand side.

6. Spot Demand Remains Weak

Exchange and on-chain data show:
Volume briefly expands during declines

Then quickly falls back

Buying pressure lacks continuity

This structure is more like insufficient liquidity than active accumulation.

7. Leveraged Market Completes a Round of Washing-Out

Recent long liquidations have released excessive leverage risk.

Current derivative market characteristics:

Funding rates return to neutral

Positions are not crowded

Risk appetite declines

The driving force of the market is returning to spot demand.

8. Options Market Continues Pricing Downside Risk

Options structures show:

Increase in protective positions

Rising demand for put protection

Repricing of long-term volatility

Participants are more focused on risk management than directional bets.

9. Macro Liquidity Still Dominates Price Action

Bitcoin still exhibits significant high-beta liquidity characteristics.

When financial conditions tighten and safe-haven assets strengthen, risk assets come under pressure.
Capital flowing into gold and reserve assets also reflects declining risk appetite.

The macro environment still dominates capital allocation logic.

10. Why It's Highly Similar to the Mid-Stage of the 2022 Bear Market

The current market exhibits similar structural features:

✔ Price oscillating within the cost range
✔ Institutions reducing risk exposure
✔ Insufficient demand
✔ Trapped positions forming pressure
✔ Leverage risk released
✔ Market entering defensive mode

Historical experience shows that the formation of a true bottom often requires both time and demand recovery.

Three Possible Paths Ahead

① Reclaim 79k

Risk appetite warms up
Capital flows back in
Trend resumes

② Break Below 55k

Risk release escalates
Market enters a deeper adjustment phase

③ Range-Bound Oscillation (Most Likely)

Complete chip exchange through time
Wait for new demand to form

The market is still functioning.
Liquidity, however, has clearly contracted.
The turning point of a trend
never depends on emotional venting,
but on—
who is willing to catch the chips before patience runs out.
This is precisely
the lesson left for the market
from the mid-stage of the 2022 bear market.