Release schedule for key US macroeconomic data next week (February 16–20, 2026)

📅 Key Economic Data & Market Expectations for Next Week (Including Times)
All times are in ET / Beijing Time (+13 h). Data expectations are based on current market consensus and major institution forecasts (e.g., LBBW, Investing.com calendar summary, etc.)
LBBW +1
🎯 Tuesday — February 17
🕗 08:30 / 21:30
Retail Sales (January, MoM)
Consensus: Approximately +0.3%
Previous/Context: December showed no growth (MoM ~ 0.0%)
The Wall Street Journal
Business Inventories (December)
Expectation: Moderate inventory growth (limited contribution to GDP)
Scotiabank
Empire State Manufacturing Index (February)
Expectation: Approximately +7.4 (slightly above previous)
LBBW
📊 Wednesday — February 18
🕐 09:15 / 22:15
4) Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (January)
Expectation: Slight growth or moderate
Scotiabank
🕙 10:00 / 23:00
5) Leading Indicators (January)
Expectation: Slight growth (indicating short-term economic resilience)
Scotiabank
🕑 14:00 / Next Day 03:00
6) FOMC Meeting Minutes
No specific value, qualitative policy communication (affects sentiment and rate expectations)
Scotiabank
🌍 Thursday — February 19
🕗 08:30 / 21:30
7) Trade Balance (December)
Expectation: Deficit remains large (trade imbalance drags on GDP)
Scotiabank
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (February)
Expectation: Moderate expansion range
Scotiabank
🕙 10:00 / 23:00
9) Pending Home Sales (January)
Expectation: Slight decline or flat (housing demand slowing)
Scotiabank
📉 Friday — February 20
🕗 08:30 / 21:30
10) GDP Preliminary (Q4 Annualized)
Expectation: Annualized ~ +2.6% (relying on consumption and business inventory contribution)
LBBW
Personal Income (December)
Expectation: +0.4%
Personal Spending (December) **Expectation: +0.5%**
LBBW
🕙 10:00 / 23:00
12) University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (February)
Expectation: Approximately 57.3, maintaining stable level
LBBW
📈 Typical Impact Logic of Data on Major US Stock Market Sectors

1. GDP (Most Critical Macro Growth Indicator)
   Expected actual GDP growth ~ +2.6%
   Technology Sector (Tech): If GDP exceeds expectations (indicating continued economic expansion), it typically supports high-valuation growth stock premiums; if significantly below expectations, pressure due to declining risk appetite.
   Financials Sector (Financials): Better-than-expected GDP often drives upward revisions to bank earnings expectations (enhanced loan/investment growth expectations).
   Consumer Sectors (Consumer Discretionary & Staples): GDP acceleration usually benefits consumer company earnings expectations; slowing growth weakens consumption support.
   Summary: GDP is the core measure of the economy's "overall momentum." If it exceeds expectations, US stock market risk assets (especially high-valuation growth stocks) typically perform stronger; below expectations is more bearish for overall market sentiment.
2. Retail Sales
   Expectation +0.3% (slight consumption improvement)
   Consumer Staples: Even if overall sales data is weak, Staples are often more resilient due to stable daily consumption demand.
   Consumer Discretionary: If core consumption growth is weaker than expected, retail, auto, and restaurant stocks face pressure; conversely, it benefits sector valuation recovery.
   Technology/Growth Sector: If weak consumption suggests economic slowdown, funds flow to safer assets, potentially reducing allocation to high-risk tech stocks.
3. Industrial & Manufacturing Indicators (Empire / Philadelphia / Industrial Production)
   Industrial Sector (Industrial): If manufacturing indices exceed expectations and industrial output strengthens, industrial equipment, machinery, and energy companies get a boost.
   Materials/Energy Sector: Increased manufacturing activity implies higher raw material demand, benefiting the sector's fundamentals.
   Technology & Financials Sectors: Manufacturing data strength/weakness is often a risk appetite signal; strong data boosts market risk appetite, benefiting growth/high-beta sectors.
4. FOMC Meeting Minutes
   Core Impact: Rate expectations and risk appetite direction
   Dovish (clearer rate cut bias): Beneficial for long-term rates and growth assets (e.g., tech stocks, consumer growth stocks).
   Hawkish (maintaining tightening bias): Bearish for high-valuation sectors, may boost USD and bond yields, beneficial for financials (steeper yield curve benefits bank profits).
5. Consumer Confidence & Personal Spending / Income
   Personal spending and confidence expectations stable
   Consumer Sectors (Discretionary & Staples): Improved confidence and spending benefit medium-to-long-term earnings expectations; weakness erodes valuation premiums.
   Technology Sector: Stable consumer income supports long-term demand for tech products and services, neutral or slightly positive for growth-oriented consumer tech stocks.
   Financials Sector: Recovering confidence usually improves loan/credit usage expectations, benefiting bank and financial services stocks.

📊 Brief Summary
Focus on two types of data for US stocks next week:
Economic Growth & Consumption Demand: GDP, Retail Sales, and Consumer Spending → Directly impact market risk appetite and company earnings expectations.
Policy Preference Signals: FOMC Minutes → Determine future rate expectations, affecting relative performance of growth vs. value stocks.