🚨 🔥 OpenAI targets a $1 trillion valuation? If it goes public in 2026, will it be the new era's $Amazon(AMZN.US) or a historic bubble?

If OpenAI and Anthropic head for IPO in 2026,

it could be the most significant tech capital event in nearly a decade.

OpenAI targets a $1 trillion valuation.

This figure alone is enough to reshape market expectations.

Jensen Huang publicly stated that investing in AI might be like buying $Amazon(AMZN.US), $Alphabet(GOOGL.US), or $Meta Platforms(META.US) early.

The weight of this statement is heavy.

Because when he said this, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) was standing at the core of the computing power revolution.

But the issue must be viewed separately.

First layer: Is $1 trillion expensive?

From a traditional valuation perspective, $1 trillion means it must possess the ability to generate hundreds of billions in revenue consistently and have long-term monopoly-like profit margins.

From the perspective of exponential technological revolution, if AI becomes the underlying operating system for global productivity, then this valuation is instead "front-loaded pricing."

The key lies in—

Is OpenAI's business model ultimately a SaaS company or an infrastructure company?

If it becomes the interface layer for global knowledge workflows, the valuation logic will be closer to a cloud platform, not a single software enterprise.

Second layer: The $500 billion human activity replacement space.

AI has already begun replacing some customer service, content creation, programming, data analysis, and preliminary legal review work. If AI truly penetrates high-end cognitive fields in the coming years, the market size could far exceed the current SaaS industry.

But replacement does not equal profit.

The speed of technology diffusion, regulatory constraints, and competitive landscape will all determine profit margins.

Third layer: Is the historical analogy valid?

Those who bought $Amazon(AMZN.US), $Alphabet(GOOGL.US), $Meta Platforms(META.US) early were betting on the increase in internet penetration.

Betting on AI today is betting on cognitive automation.

This is not the same curve.

The internet solved the connection problem.

AI solves the capability problem.

If the capability layer is monopolized by platforms, profit concentration will be higher.

But if open source and competition intensify, profits may be diluted.

The real question is not "expensive or not."

It is:

Do you believe AI will become the core productivity foundation for the next 10 years?

If you believe, is $1 trillion the starting point or the peak?

If you don't believe, then the valuation will be an emotional peak.

When OpenAI or Anthropic actually goes public, will you treat it as the gateway to the next era,

or the endpoint of the next wave of capital frenzy?

📬 I will continue to track the valuation logic and capital structure changes of AI giants.