These two potential risks are also areas I need to

These two potential risks are also areas I need to be vigilant about.

1. Choose an investment method that suits your current life and work situation. Although recent options have high returns, it also means high risk, which is not so friendly to office workers.

In March, I positioned too many options on AMD, Microsoft, and Amazon. Winning would be leveraging small capital for big gains, but losing would also erode last year's profits.

2. Not just mid-term elections, every major change brings global systemic risks. Such as the internet bubble or threats of regional wars. Should we diversify our portfolio?

Yesterday's floating loss was nearly 10K, basically wiping out the over 20% floating profit from 2026. Holding options at this time requires even more risk control.

The main floating loss was in the heavily weighted $AMD(AMD.US). The March options experienced significant time decay. The protective options helped a bit, but unfortunately, the puts were sold a bit late. I also didn't expect it to drop so quickly again after hours.

Added a bit of $Southern Copper(SCCO.US) March options.

$Amazon(AMZN.US) is okay, but the $Microsoft(MSFT.US) March options have shrunk too much.

It's not good to add more, but it's also not good not to add. I can only add a little bit in a stepwise manner.

This recent period is similar to last October: after making big gains, there's a large-scale giveback, but this time it's harder to endure, with more uncertainty.

AI is the direction. Someone shared this piece of information yesterday, which is a bit scary.

I heard there's a requirement: this year's Spring Festival Gala across the country will promote AI to the public. Not only that, but everyone should also be mentally prepared to be replaced by AI. Could it be that the declining birth rate is irreversible, and "AI creating people" has become the new national policy? Some experts have also said before: If the maturity and scaling speed of robots just offset the speed of population decline, this would be a "perfect" transition for China (only from an economic perspective)...

So, what should we do living in this world, what kind of people should we become...

Luyouyou

On the first day of every new year, I always prepare for the worst-case scenario of the year

so that I can handle everything calmly each year

It's a rather disappointing New Year's wish... but often very useful

When I first read the following chapter

I reminded a friend of the potential toxic risks they were carrying

Half a year later, they became addicted to options and futures, accumulating over five million in debt

This later led me to seriously study and summarize those failure cases

in order to identify certain root commonalities and avoid them from the source

For example, some personalities shaped by childhood upbringing are naturally prone to gambling

Confronting the most fragile, incompetent, and stubborn parts of human nature and fixing them is not shameful; on the contrary, it is an essential part of a strong person's advancement

On the first day of the New Year, I want to give this reminder to my friends (I have many friends in Longbridge, so often I share content as a personal record and also for sharing with friends, but it often turns into a kind of public arrogance of teaching others what to do. This is the limitation of this community, so I can only manually add a note myself: only to be shared with those who are destined to receive it. Not interfering in others' karma is a basic principle)

In my eyes, offense is a reward mechanism; there is action, there is feedback

While defense is a punishment mechanism that confirms failure or waits for confirmation, confirming one's own incompetence

And people subconsciously are unwilling to admit temporary failure and incompetence

Therefore, people tend to prove they are not incompetent through frequent offense

Instead, they frequently expose themselves to risks without realizing it

Always preset the maximum risk, bravely admit your own limitations

Wait patiently, advance by retreating—this is what I often do for self-warning

Life is like this too: startups can fail, love can come to nothing, marriages can end up in court, close friends can betray you…

And always being prepared for the worst in advance always allows one to remain calm at all times, comply with the laws of all things in the world, respect human nature, let go of unrealistic obsessions—it is the strongest bullish view on the quality of life: ease and fulfillment

Returning to investment and this year, still identify the two biggest potential extreme risks:

1. Continuously examine the greed in my own human nature;

2. The volatility of repeated "wolf is coming" scenarios before Donald Trump's midterm elections, and even possible extreme black swans;

I hope to engrave these two risks in my mind every day from now on, and constantly optimize the response plan daily.

Additionally, I also set two clearer requirements for myself:

When thinking about a problem, define the boundaries first; otherwise, don't ask;

When discussing a conclusion, sort out the essence and propose a solution; otherwise, don't mention it.

Good thinking doesn't need an immediate answer, but it will guide daily actions towards doing useful work in the right direction

㊗️ May this year be more peaceful, more rational, and wiser for all.