Today's Key News Review | Dolphin Research
0119 Dolphin Analyst focuses on:
🐬 Macro/Industry
1. The US December PPI rose by 6.2% year-on-year, lower than the market's estimated 6.8%, marking the largest decline since the outbreak of the pandemic. The drop was mainly driven by the violent fall in energy and food prices. PPI inflationary pressures further eased, and CPI growth rate rose above PPI for the first time since December 2020.
2. The US Department of Commerce released its latest retail sales data for December, with sales falling 1.1% month-on-month, exceeding market expectations and marking the biggest decline in a year. December, which was supposed to be the peak season for shopping, saw an unexpected decline in consumption, indicating that the trajectory of the US economy is weakening and the risk of the US economy falling into recession in 2023 is rising. At the same time, the sharp contraction in retail also strengthens the expectation that the Fed will slow down its rate hikes.
3. The US industrial production fell by 0.7% month-on-month in December, exceeding the expected 0.10%, marking the biggest drop since February 2021, indicating that as domestic and foreign demand slows down, manufacturing is slowing down further. The weakness in PPI, retail, and industrial output has deepened market concerns about a recession, leading to a rapid drop in the 10-year treasury bond yield to below 3.5%, and a 3.37% drop in bond prices yesterday. Due to concerns about the depth of the recession, the market is worried that the outlook for EPS has overshadowed the discounted downturn, causing a simultaneous drop in stocks and bonds.
🐬 Individual stock
1. $Kellanova.USuaishou-W.HK
Kuaishou's controlling shareholder, Dajia Development Co., has sold more than 54.71 million B-class shares, with a consideration of HKD 69.0562 per share, a discount of about 4.7% from the closing price on the previous trading day, totalling about HKD 3.778 billion. After the sale, Dajia Development and Mr. Su are still the controlling shareholders of the company. Kuaishou, after experiencing a sharp drop last year, has risen more than 100% from its low point in the past two months, and the founder's cashing out at this time has obviously caused market dissatisfaction. Kuaishou closed down 6% today.
2. $Macys.USicrosoft.US
After Amazon's layoffs, Microsoft is also not immune. Recently, the "layoff wave" in Silicon Valley revealed that Microsoft will cut 10,000 jobs in the third quarter of the 2023 fiscal year on a large scale, accounting for about 5%, involving engineering and human resources. Affected by rising interest rates and economic slowdown, Microsoft recorded its slowest performance growth in nearly five years in the third quarter report last year. The company also warned that this situation will continue for some time. "Cost control" is still a heavy burden, and the situation of other technology companies on Wall Street is also worrying.
🐬 Leading Sectors
SH & SZ: Computer equipment, medical services, software development;
HKEX: Tourism and sightseeing, automotive retailers, property services and management;
US market: Highway transportation, other industrial metals and mining, publishing.
🐬 Daily Focus
1. Netflix announces financial report, Dolphin Analyst will provide interpretation and analysis, feel free to stay tuned.
⚠️ Companies covered by Dolphin Analyst in the above content are highlighted in red. You can search for "海豚投研" on the Longbridge App (click here to download), enter the homepage and search for the corresponding company name to obtain the complete research collection of that company (including minutes of the company's past performance conferences).
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