Review the operations around NVIDIA's earnings report

After a long winter, temperatures in Beijing gradually rose around the Spring Festival, with highs even approaching 20°C; but these past few days, there was a sudden cliff-like drop to below zero, and even some snow. Many people couldn't adapt, and colds became more common.
This feeling is a bit like NVIDIA recently: thinking "spring has arrived" after the earnings report, with signs of a price uptick, only for it to pull back nearly 10% over two consecutive days.
Today, I'm reviewing my actions around the earnings report.

My long-standing discipline has been: move less and watch more when the market is uncertain. Especially around earnings reports when volatility is extreme, my habit is usually to wait a few days for the market to fully price in the news before making decisions.
But this time, NVIDIA delivered an almost "flawless" earnings report: in a nutshell — the AI CapEx narrative is more stable, its competitiveness stronger, and future guidance clearer.
I did a scenario valuation myself:
• Optimistic scenario (40–50% growth): PE 45–55x → price range 351–429
• Realistic scenario (30–35% growth): PE 27–35x → price range 210–273
• Conservative scenario (20–25% growth): PE ~20x → price range 140–171
So, I naturally considered 210–273 as the "price range more aligned with fundamentals."
But the market is interesting: even if you're 183cm tall, have an eight-pack, look like a handsome celebrity, and are worth billions, it's no use if ordinary people (retail investors) go crazy for you; when you meet the goddess you like (institutions), and she says "not feeling it," you're out of luck.
So we saw: after the earnings, retail investors bought heavily, with net buying hitting a record high since 2012; meanwhile, institutions took the opportunity to shift funds out of the highly concentrated big tech stocks.

Pre-market on earnings day hit my sell point, and I reduced some of my position as per discipline.
But the extra cash after the report, plus the "too perfect" earnings, gave me a bit of FOMO: I subjectively judged that NVIDIA would at worst fall back to 185, maybe even touch 190 before bouncing, then oscillate between 190–200.
So that night, I placed staggered buy orders in the 190–185 range.
Woke up in the morning to find all orders filled.
This once again reminded me: Don't always think "this is impossible, that is impossible." Dan Bin said the market loves to make the impossible happen.
So always leave yourself room, don't think about making all the money in one go. There are always opportunities in the market; what's important is — staying alive.
Fortunately, I still stuck to my bottom-line principle: Always keep yourself in a position with options. This dip-buying was just a light "buying a ticket," and my cash cushion is still ample.

I was also a bit carried away by this report: I overlooked NVIDIA's earnings history.
"Surge after earnings — digestion — pullback" has almost become a stock characteristic of NVDA. Every time NVIDIA delivers a perfect earnings report, the market raises similar questions:
• Is growth peaking/slowing from here?
• How much certainty is already priced into the valuation?
• Can it continue to "beat significantly" rather than "beat slightly" going forward?
And these questions have become increasingly frequent since 2024, because NVDA is transitioning from a "consistently off-the-charts growth stock" to being scrutinized by the market with harsher standards: not just growth, but growth that consistently exceeds already sky-high expectations.
This is something I must always remember when investing in NVIDIA in the future.

I'm not denying this dip-buying operation — I just wish I could be more patient and more "emotionless."
From a fundamental perspective, this decline looks more like: a post-earnings sentiment and valuation multiple giveback. Historical experience also shows: as long as consensus estimates don't see significant, consecutive downward revisions, prices often tend to "come back," though they might first consolidate sideways for a few weeks, digesting the selling pressure above.
Maybe by the GTC in mid-March, the conference will bring a new narrative and push the stock price up again.
What we really need to watch out for are two things:
• The market starting to consecutively lower consensus estimates;
• Or a macro-level repricing (e.g., a change in interest rate direction, sudden policy shocks like in April last year).

It's hard to be perfect every time in short-term trading, which is why we need constant review, constant refinement, and the courage to criticize ourselves. Never let emotions drive you; never think about how much you must make on this one trade, but first think: what if I lose?
As Donald Trump said in "The Art of the Deal": always leave yourself an out.
But one thing I still believe: spring has already arrived.
Even with a sudden cold snap and a couple of snowfalls, it doesn't change the trend of gradually warming temperatures.