依 Fed 看的 PCE,加息 0.25 几乎确认,大概率不会改变。 但本次有一定机率针对资金流动性做文章,比如加大 QT,或考虑加大 QT。

需注意 1/31 的 ECI,许多人不知道,这是对 Fed 第二重要的数字,预期 1.1,如果超出预期,不用等会议,市场就掉头向下了。

如过符合预期,就看周四了。 Fed 发鹰,三大科技,即便财报好,也会被解释为利多出尽,反之亦然。 也有一定机率中性发言。

下周前段,避险盘会大量升温,大家安全带要系好,要做好上云霄飞车的准备。

备注 - 每年 6000-8000 万 QT 约等于升息 0.25。

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