$Circle(CRCL.US)

Based on the 2025 annual report (revenue of $2.75 billion, USDC circulation of $75.3 billion) and 2026 forecasts, CRCL's valuation logic is undergoing a shift from "high-growth SaaS" to "regulated financial infrastructure."

1. Core Valuation Model Calculations

• DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) Model: Considering that the Federal Reserve's interest rates may remain elevated for longer (maintaining reserve interest income), most neutral models (e.g., Simply Wall St) give a fair value in the range of $46 - $65. However, this is often viewed as an "extremely pessimistic/liquidation value."

• P/S (Price-to-Sales) Horizontal Comparison: CRCL's current LTM P/S is approximately 8.3x. This represents a significant premium compared to the software industry average (3.5x) but is close to fintech leaders like Coinbase (COIN). Applying a conservative multiple of 5-6x would correspond to a stock price of around $68 - $78.

• Institutional Consensus: Morgan Stanley ($80) and JP Morgan ($90) have provided the most realistic "defensive levels"; while high-growth analysts (Canaccord/Baird) anchor their targets at $130+.

2. Conclusion: Stock Price Tier Map

• Absolute Undervalued Zone (Golden Pit): $60 - $75. This range corresponds to the P/S falling back to industry benchmarks and is highly attractive unless the crypto industry suffers a systemic collapse.

• Reasonable Game Zone (Value Center): $80 - $95. This is the current "cost-intensive zone" and the equilibrium point for policy games.

• Premium/Overbought Zone: >$120. At this point, the stock price incorporates excessive expectations for the Arc mainnet.