Most likely tomorrow...

$Shanghai Composite Index sh000001$ The A-share market officially opens tomorrow, but the Hong Kong stock market will take another day off due to the Easter holiday.

This means that northbound capital will be absent for another day, and it's highly likely that the trading volume of A-shares will remain at a low level tomorrow. Everyone should be mentally prepared for this in advance, so you don't panic when you see the low volume later.

The news flow these days has been absolutely ridiculous, with sudden reversals happening faster than turning a page, catching people off guard. One side keeps pushing, the other refuses to budge, and this back-and-forth tug-of-war is really wearing down the nerves of us investors. We're all afraid of waking up to some new development that will affect the next day's market.

Remember last Friday? A-shares saw a significant volume contraction of 186.5 billion, closing with a turnover of 1.66 trillion and a drop of 39.19 basis points. Nearly 4,500 stocks were falling. That scene was heartbreaking for anyone who saw it. Since the geopolitical conflict intensified, the index has fallen into a box below 3950, and market turnover has been declining. Last Friday, it almost fell to 1.5 trillion... This is a very rare situation since the start of this bull market.

The current situation is that with the geopolitical conflict present, external funds are afraid to enter and are all on the sidelines watching. The funds already in the market are fiercely competing, with nowhere else to go. Even the GJD funds rarely step in to support the market. Even if they do intervene later, it will most likely only be to prevent systemic risk in the index. Don't expect them to drive a major market rally; let's not get our hopes too high.

Regarding the future trend of the index, I personally think it will continue to fluctuate within the box range. The key is still the signal of "increased volume" – only when volume increases is there a real possibility of a reversal. For most of us investors, the safest approach is: reduce your position, look for stocks with strong group support, and patiently wait for a volume-driven reversal. Don't mess around aimlessly; the more you mess around, the more you lose.

But there's also good news, so don't be too anxious! I originally thought that with the Middle East situation so tense, the Asia-Pacific markets would definitely open weakly. But surprisingly, the Japanese and Korean markets opened slightly higher today and then rose steadily throughout the day. What does this mean? It means that foreign capital simply didn't take the holiday news seriously. It rose and charged ahead as usual, undisturbed. This Japanese and Korean market performance has also given us a reassurance!

So whether the A-share market can rise tomorrow depends entirely on our own strength. The interference from foreign market sentiment, as it seems now, has already subsided by more than half. This is definitely good news, and everyone can relax a little.

Let's talk about the sectors everyone is most concerned about:

I. Pharmaceutical Sector

The pharmaceutical sector index is still relatively resilient, holding above the 5-day moving average. Overall, it looks like a pullback due to divergence. We all know this is another sector after power that can be sustained and profitable, but I must remind everyone: don't be too greedy or too optimistic.

If the sector index cannot close higher and reverse the decline tomorrow, then this pharmaceutical rally can basically be declared over. After that, it can only be viewed as a rotational play, and you can no longer think about holding it for the long term.

Although the highest-positioned stock is still in the pharmaceutical direction, it already failed to drive the entire sector last Friday. It's more of an independent group play now, unrelated to the sector. If you must find a reference, you can look at the performance of Wanbang and Xinli. If they are recognized by the market and continue to rise, then pharmaceuticals can still play for a couple more days. If they fail, pharmaceuticals are completely done. In short, for the pharmaceutical direction, my advice is to be cautious. Watch tomorrow's recovery situation first, and don't enter blindly.

II. AI + Technology

First, let's talk about optical communication. This sector has been trending upward, especially driven by the logic of rising fiber optic prices. The related leader, Changfei, is still in a healthy uptrend. Last Friday's market saw hot plays in the AI technology direction mostly revolving around Changfei's fiber optic concept. This logic is very clear.

The current front-runner in this sector is Huiyuan. Whether it rises and how strong it is tomorrow will directly determine whether this theme can continue. For short-term traders, just focus on it; it's the core.

Among the first-day limit-up stocks, Tongyu is special. It has both commercial aerospace and military industry attributes, giving it inherent recognition. Moreover, commercial aerospace itself is a hot rotational theme recently. So this stock deserves a closer look and should be a key focus.

Now let's talk about computing power. This sector has been repeatedly active, and I've mentioned it to you many times before. The core logic is simple: as token consumption increases, more computing power is needed. It's just that this sector's path has been too bumpy, with ups and downs, making it hard to hold onto.

Last Friday, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology mentioned the two new terms "computing power bank" and "computing power supermarket," which immediately revitalized the computing power sector, leading to a batch of first-day limit-ups. But everyone should note that this sector is prone to rotation. Don't chase highs; still prioritize watching the front-runner stocks, with a key focus on the keyword "computing power scheduling."

III. Other Sectors

The hottest news over the weekend was still related to the geopolitical conflict: things like a 48-hour ultimatum, US military aircraft being shot down, etc., which are nerve-wracking to read. However, there was also a bright spot: according to a report by the National Business Daily, the daily cross-border RMB payment volume broke through 1.2 trillion, another high since March. That's a good signal.

Another important reminder: The end of April is the intensive disclosure period for annual reports and first-quarter reports. All listed companies must release their annual and first-quarter reports by April 30th. Every year at this time, it's the high season for earnings bombs in the A-share market. Stocks with profit warnings or earnings that fall short of expectations are likely to fall sharply, especially those that have risen a lot earlier but whose fundamentals can't keep up. The risk is even greater!

So in the coming period, when selecting stocks, you must be extra vigilant and cautious. Try to avoid companies with poor earnings forecasts or fundamental problems. Don't accidentally step on an earnings bomb, lose a fortune, and then need a long time to recover. That's just not worth it!