TSM: Strong as expected; SK hynix tumbles pre-mkt after listing frenzy | Daily News Recap

0713 ｜Key Watch by Dolphin Research:

🐬 Macro / Sector

1、The U.S.–Iran standoff escalated, with multiple U.S. airstrikes on Iranian coastal military sites. Iran retaliated by striking U.S. bases in Qatar, Kuwait and the UAE, and announced an indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump said shipping lanes remain open.

The strait handles nearly 30% of global crude exports, lifting international oil prices and stoking inflation fears. Near term, risk-off flows favor crude and tanker names; a prolonged confrontation could weigh on global risk appetite and increase volatility in high-multiple tech, so we will track the timeline for navigation resumption.

🐬 Stocks

1、$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)

TSMC reported Jun revenue of NT$442.7bn (+67.9% YoY, +6.2% MoM), taking 1H revenue up 35.6% YoY. Growth was driven by sustained ramp in AI compute chip orders and pricing tailwinds from tight 3nm/5nm supply.

3nm and 5nm capacity remain fully loaded, with stable demand from large customers such as Apple, and Q2 GPM is likely to stay elevated. The print validates a high-cycle AI foundry backdrop and ongoing expansion in global compute hardware demand; TSMC reports this Thu (7/16), and Dolphin Research will continue to monitor.

2、$SK Hynix(SKHY.US)

SK hynix listed on Nasdaq on Jul 10, and CEO Kwak Noh‑Jung told Reuters that AI demand plus capacity constraints could drive the worst supply shortage in memory by 2027. U.S. pre-mkt shares fell sharply today as IPO optimism was priced in and local brokers cut Q2 profit estimates.

HBM long-term contracts have capped ASP growth, prompting profit-taking, while cross-market arbitrage amplified the pullback. The long-term tight-supply thesis remains intact, but near-term profit realization is weighing on the stock and weakening sentiment across memory names.

3、$SERES(09927.HK)

Seres guided a 1H net loss of RMB 1.5–1.8bn vs. RMB 2.941bn profit a year ago, with its core sub-brand Aito also posting large losses. Losses stem from higher upstream lithium and chip material costs compressing GPM, combined with end-market price cuts and model refresh-related impairments.

While 1H volumes grew slightly, profitability deteriorated materially, and the stock fell across both A- and H-shares after the notice. The sharp swing to losses reset street earnings expectations, pressuring auto OEM sentiment near term and underscoring intensifying price competition.

🐬 Top Gainers by Sector

A‑share: integrated O&G and regional banks led. O&G E&P also outperformed.

HK: real estate services and breweries led. Water and soft drinks outperformed as well.

U.S.: textiles and drug retailers led. Footwear also outperformed.

🐬 Watchlist for Tomorrow

1) China Jun trade balance (RMB terms). 2) China Jun trade balance (USD terms).

1) U.S. Jun CPI MoM SA. 2) U.S. Jun CPI YoY NSA; U.S. Jun core CPI YoY NSA.

Risk disclosure and statements:Dolphin Research Disclaimer and General Disclosure