Meta up 10% in two days, are institutions quietly betting on it to keep surging?

Last Friday, $Meta Platforms(META.US) closed at 669.21, up +5.97% for the day. Over two trading days, it rose from 603 on 7/8 all the way to 669, an increase of nearly +10%. On Monday pre-market, it dipped slightly to 667.91, basically giving back nothing. A bunch of news hit pre-market: Meta announced an additional $40 billion investment in its data center in Richland Parish, Louisiana, bringing the project's total investment to over $50 billion, with a computing power target of 5GW. There was also news about Meta's self-developed AI chips entering production. In short, Meta has placed another huge bet in the AI capex arms race, and that's the expectation the market is buying.

In the first hour of trading last Friday, someone placed three separate orders to buy the 7/31 expiry 685 Call, totaling 3,179 contracts, worth about $11.19 million — this was the most conviction-laden long position I saw in the entire market that day. At the same time, they sold the 7/17 expiry 655 Put (about 155,000 contracts). Buying upside Calls and selling downside Puts is a clear bullish Risk Reversal structure: not afraid of a small dip, betting it will continue to surge before month-end.

I judge this as bullish, but I must recognize it's chasing at a high level: the stock rose 10% in two days, and the 685 Call is still over 2 points away from the current price. Institutions are betting the AI capex story will continue to play out without a pullback before month-end. I followed with a small position in Calls around 685, sizing it to money I can afford to lose entirely — the maximum loss for this single-leg Call is the premium, a clean loss. For my stop-loss, I'm watching the 7/10 low of 658; if it effectively breaks below that intraday, I'm out, not sticking around. Only if it can hold above the 7/10 high of 677.86 will I consider adding.