今晚 20:30 将公布美国 6 月 CPI 数据，这份报告会直接左右美联储政策预期，全球资本市场都将屏息等待。市场预期 CPI 同比上涨 3.8%，环比下降 0.1%；但核心 CPI 同比预期仍高达 2.8%-2.9%，距离美联储 2% 通胀目标依旧存在明显差距。若通胀持续性较强，降息预期会再度延后，对成长赛道、外资流向形成压制；倘若数据显著降温，风险资产有望迎来情绪提振。关注跳跳糖，持续追踪海外宏观关键数据带来的市场波动。

U.S. Jun CPI and PPI both came in below estimates, cooling fears of a Jul rate hike. But Fed Chair Waller held firm — calling single-month data an 'imperfect indicator' and signaling zero tolerance for persistent inflation. Hawks within the Fed remain divided: some favor a 'modest' rate increase, while others lean toward a pause but warn hikes remain on the table if inflation stays elevated. Rate futures now price an ~86% chance of a hold in Jul, yet odds of a Sep hike remain above 50%. The real debate for U.S. equities isn't about cuts — it's whether a Jul pause sets up a Sep restart. Do you think tech stocks keep riding the cooldown in rate-hike expectations, or is it time to hedge against rates making a comeback?

U.S. Jun CPI and PPI both came in below estimates, cooling fears of a Jul rate hike. But Fed Chair Waller held firm — calling single-month data an 'imperfect indicator' and signaling zero tolerance for persistent inflation. Hawks within the Fed remain divided: some favor a 'modest' rate increase, while others lean toward a pause but warn hikes remain on the table if inflation stays elevated. Rate futures now price an ~86% chance of a hold in Jul, yet odds of a Sep hike remain above 50%. The real debate for U.S. equities isn't about cuts — it's whether a Jul pause sets up a Sep restart. Do you think tech stocks keep riding the cooldown in rate-hike expectations, or is it time to hedge against rates making a comeback?

Cooling Inflation Fails to Resolve Fed's Hawkish Divide — What's Next for July?

今晚 20:30 将公布美国 6 月 CPI 数据，这份报告会直接左右美联储政策预期，全球资本市场都将屏息等待。市场预期 CPI 同比上涨 3.8%，环比下降 0.1%；但核心 CPI 同比预期仍高达 2.8%-2.9%，距离美联储 2% 通胀目标依旧存在明显差距。若通胀持续性较强，降息预期会再度延后，对成长赛道、外资流向形成压制；倘若数据显著降温，风险资产有望迎来情绪提振。关注跳跳糖，持续追踪海外宏观关键数据带来的市场波动。

重磅数据晚间落地！美国 CPI 牵动全球市场