US Treasury Yields Hit Record Highs, Pressuring US Stocks! Analysis of Alphabet/Tesla Earnings, When Will Tech Stocks Bottom Out? Tencent/NetEase Plunge

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Hong Kong and US Stocks Plunge Amid Market Environment
Olga: Hi, welcome everyone to today's live stream! Sorry for starting a bit late because I was chatting too happily with Horace just now. Horace, we've recently seen that although there are some geopolitical news in the broader environment, the market seems to have stopped caring much about it. Instead, some economic data are quietly moving, and US Treasury yields are hitting new highs. What impact does this have on overall liquidity?
Horace: Yes, although people are somewhat numb to geopolitical news, US Treasury yields like the 3-year, 10-year, and 20-year are hitting 52-week highs, and oil prices and the US dollar are also strengthening. This means market "liquidity" will be constrained. Recently, US stocks clearly haven't been rising collectively but rather due to "insufficient funds," where one sector rises while another is forced to sell off, leading to sector rotation and squeezing. Investors need high flexibility now; if the direction is wrong, they must prepare for hedging.
Situation of the Three Major US Stock Indices
Olga: Let's start with the three major US stock indices. How are the Dow Jones, S&P, and Nasdaq currently trending?
Horace:

• Dow Jones Index: Currently relatively strong, but has reached the vicinity of an upward trajectory. The key level is at 52,000 points. If it breaks below, it may be necessary to take moderate profits or reduce risk exposure, filling the gap near 51,200 points below.
• Nasdaq 100 Index: Has adjusted for a month, mainly affected by the pullback in hardware stocks. Current rebound momentum is not very strong, and a V-shaped reversal is unlikely; it needs to consolidate a bottom at low levels. Short-term rebound space looks at 29,600–29,700 points. If it drops directly, it will test 28,300–28,400 points.
• S&P 500 Index: Previously broke through triangle consolidation, now only showing a small rebound. Special attention should be paid to 7,450 points. If this key level breaks, there may be significant adjustment risks in the third quarter, looking back at 7,250–7,350 points.
  Hong Kong Stock Market Observation and Trading Mechanism Reforms
  Olga: Hong Kong stocks have been consolidating around 25,000 points these days, and there have been rumors that trading hours might be extended or lunch breaks canceled. What do you think?
  Horace: This round of rebound in Hong Kong stocks is mainly "valuation repair," supported by high-dividend stocks like HSBC and China Mobile. Currently challenging the downward trajectory at 24,800–25,200 points. If you want to chase highs now, the risk is actually quite large.
  Regarding trading hours, since NYSE and Nasdaq are pushing for 23-hour trading, if no response is made, Asian session funds will be sucked away. For Hong Kong stocks to attract international capital, canceling lunch breaks or extending trading hours is a basic defense and counterattack; it must be done.
  Tech Giants' Earnings Reports and Hardware Stock Outlook
  Olga: Speaking of tech stocks, Google just released its earnings report. Although cloud business is good, it announced continued increases in AI capital expenditure (CapEx), and after-hours it seemed to drop 3%. Is this good or bad for the entire AI sector?
  Horace: The market currently dislikes seeing software companies spend too much money because they fear cost recovery issues, so Google's stock price is under pressure. But from another perspective, these giants promising to continue spending heavily actually provides strong fundamental support for "AI hardware stocks"! After this round of adjustments, hardware stocks' rebound momentum will gradually emerge, but reaching all-time highs might be difficult, so view it primarily as a rebound.
  Olga: Let's look at a few semiconductor and tech stocks everyone is concerned about, such as AMD and NVIDIA:
  Horace:
• AMD: Trending stronger than Nvidia, attempting to break through the downward trajectory. Holding above $520 on the short term downside is no big problem; if it breaks through, there's a chance to surge to previous highs of $600. However, note that its implied volatility (IV > 90%) is very expensive. Do not buy high-priced Call options; it is recommended to trade the underlying stock and exit with profits before the August 4th earnings report.
• NVIDIA: Challenging the downward trajectory and head-and-shoulders bottom neckline (around $212). If it breaks through, there's a chance to challenge $225 before earnings.
• Tesla: Earnings and Optimus robot progress did not bring much surprise, opening with a gap down. Do not rush to bottom-fish the first gap; safer observation points are at $340 (previous low) or $315 (upward trajectory support zone).
• SpaceX: Bottom hasn't formed yet; buying underlying stock is not recommended. Those who really want to position themselves can use Long-dated (e.g., half-year), Out-of-the-Money (approx. strike price 90–110) Short Put strategies, exchanging time for space.
  Chinese Concept Stocks and Popular Hong Kong Individual Stocks
  Olga: Finally, let's chat about these major Hong Kong stocks, like Tencent's sudden plunge yesterday, and how to operate Xiaomi and FiberHome?
  Horace:
• Tencent & NetEase: Single-day sharp drops often occur when the market guesses reasons, such as public funds withdrawing capital to switch to hardware stocks. If no substantial negative policy news emerges subsequently, this overreaction might actually have a chance for a technical rebound.
• Xiaomi Group: After breaking through the downward trajectory, it is consolidating at low levels. Short-term rebound first looks at HK$28.6; if it breaks through, there's a chance to reach HK$30.5–32. If positions are too heavy, definitely cash out in batches near HK$32; if it breaks below HK$25, reduce positions for defense.
• FiberHome: Pulled back nearly 60% from highs to around HK$128–135, coinciding with the Golden Ratio 0.618 and the 200-day moving average. Technically, the win rate for stopping the decline and rebounding is quite high. The first rebound target can be seen at around HK$170.
  Olga: So clear! Truly gained a lot today. We witnessed the joy, anger, sorrow, and happiness brought to hardware stocks by Google's earnings report. See you all next week at the same time, bye!
  Horace: Okay, bye everyone!