Rate Of Return
Total AssetsUS stocks grind away in the pre-market and during trading hours, but recover violently within two or three days. This kind of manipulation is common as long as it's not a bear market; the US needs the AI bubble to stay alive, Trump won't let the bubble burst, and the Fed needs to cooperate.
The only thing we can do is avoid leverage, no margin financing, and hold on until dawn 🤔
I've been on vacation recently and just took a look at the current market. I'm only sharing my personal view on the possible trends for the second half of the year.
Tech stocks remain the main theme, which goes without saying. They are the absolute drivers of the broader market. I expect the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to hit new highs by year-end, with the latter potentially performing even better. The hard tech index is the top choice.
In terms of hardware, TSMC, NVIDIA, Intel, AMD, and the small-cap players in the memory and optical modules sector may be making a strong comeback. Led by NVIDIA, the entire hardware sector is pushing upward, which might also drain liquidity from the remaining Magnificent Six. Google is still consolidating in a defensive posture, so I'm not betting on its earnings report; its trend is hard to predict. I expect semiconductors to reach a new high by year-end, though it might happen in less than six months... perhaps within 1-3 months. The previous decline and rally were not symmetrical.
On the software side, among the leaders that haven't been drained of liquidity, Microsoft is likely to consolidate with volatility in the second half of the year, without significant breakthroughs. If the leaders don't perform well, there's no need to look at the others.
Regardless, I always believe that avoiding a downturn means missing out on the subsequent rally. This was verified once in March. I didn't avoid it this time either, but I won't buy large amounts of leverage during the mid-rally phase.
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