The content might be a bit naive, so feel free to read selectively:

A chance for quick wealth lies in the expected earnings report of HSBC on August 4th. From a probability standpoint, Standard Chartered's performance has exceeded expectations and announced a share repurchase plan. This year, HSBC is divesting many non-core businesses and focusing on Asian wealth management, all to facilitate further buybacks. It is highly likely that their earnings will also beat expectations, with a buyback announcement expected after Q2. Undoubtedly, this will present a surge opportunity once disclosed at noon on August 4th (Standard Chartered surged directly by over 6%).

As for $BI-HSBC@EC2608A(24909.HK), its current implied volatility is 31.38%, not even accounting for today's opening conditions. Calculating based on a 6% rise: 31.38 × 6% = 1.8828. If the direction is correct, it offers a 2x return, pure profit. Based on HSBC's historical gains of 4-5%, 31.38 × 4.5% = 1.4121. If we are wrong and it crashes, since it is not a 0DTE option and the strike price likely won't deviate too much, it won't instantly go to zero on the day, but losses of over 50% are estimated.

In summary, if you bet right, it's a 1.5x gain; if wrong, it's a 0.5x loss. Theoretically, the expected value is positive (assuming no holding through drawdowns or immediate stop-losses).

The only risk point is that HSBC might disclose involvement in legal cases during the earnings release, such as provisions for asset impairment related to fraud cases, which sometimes appear in the fine print of previous reports. I am particularly cautious about this aspect.

However, overall, the benefits outweigh the risks, and opportunities exceed dangers. I am still hesitant if one wants to gamble on this opportunity.

This is a good time window, being the first potential buyback opportunity after acquiring Hang Seng Bank, driven by an unexpected positive outcome. If one truly believes the price already reflects this in the market, there's nothing to do if big money dumps shares.

Oh, another thing is the control behavior of market makers; it might not be as high as my calculation, but it's close enough.

In short, this is a difficult "struggle" to decide upon.