Dolphin Research
2026.08.07 01:03

ABNB 2Q26 First Take: as widely expected, boosted by the World Cup backdrop, Airbnb delivered a solid print with faster bookings growth and stronger profitability, both beating estimates. Guidance for the quarter when the World Cup kicks off also points to faster revenue growth than expected, with nights likely to re-accelerate. In short, both the reported quarter and the next-quarter outlook look strong.

In detail. We highlight the following.

1) Core ops: GBV rose 16% YoY. It may look slower QoQ, but ex-FX growth was 15%, implying a 200bps QoQ acceleration. The main driver was nights growth picking up from ~9% last quarter to nearly 11% this quarter, while nominal ADR growth eased from 9% to 5% as FX tailwinds faded, yet ADRs were still broadly higher ex-FX globally.

2) On the back of strong bookings, revenue and GP growth both modestly beat, though by a small margin. GPM was ~0.2ppt above expectations, less eye-catching than the operating metrics.

Ex-FX, however, revenue grew only 13% this quarter, 200bps slower than last quarter, implying a slight decline in the underlying take rate ex-FX. The drivers warrant attention.

3) Alongside robust growth, opex came in slightly above expectations at $2.22bn, up 14% YoY vs. the Street at $2.21bn. Marketing spend was the swing factor, still up 27%, outpacing both GBV and revenue growth. As a result, GAAP OP slightly missed, though adj. EBITDA met the company’s focus metric.

4) Guidance: management sees next-quarter revenue growth of 15%–17%, well ahead of the Street at 12%. That said, the outlook embeds roughly a 3ppt FX tailwind, so the underlying beat is less dramatic.

More notably, management expects next-quarter GBV growth around 15% and nights growth above 10%, both raised vs. prior and well ahead of the Street (GBV ~10%, nights ~8%). World Cup tailwinds should keep travel demand elevated through Q3. $Airbnb(ABNB.US)

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