德意志银行：维持对欧洲央行终端利率为 1.50% 的预期，明年将加息

Deutsche Bank insists that the terminal rate of the European Central Bank's easing cycle should remain at 1.50%, but also points out that the risk of this cycle ending may be earlier than previously expected. As the second half of this year unfolds, the bank expects market focus to shift from recent interest rate cuts to how many tightening measures may occur in the coming years. Deutsche Bank has raised its GDP growth forecast for the Eurozone in 2025 from 0.5% to 0.8%, citing that the Eurozone economy remains resilient despite the drag from U.S. tariffs. Nevertheless, it still expects the inflation rate in 2025 to be below the European Central Bank's target of 2% and believes there is room for further rate cuts—although it acknowledges that the expectation for a final rate of 1.50% is weakening. Looking ahead, Deutsche Bank believes that 2026 will be a turning point, expecting the European Central Bank to begin raising rates again by the end of 2026, increasing the policy rate to 1.75%