阿迪达斯（ETR:ADS）的股东在五年前投资该股票后，已经经历了 12% 的损失
Adidas (ETR:ADS) shareholders have faced a 12% total shareholder return loss over the past five years, with the stock down 16% in that period and 11% in the last three months. The company's earnings per share (EPS) declined by 3.2% annually, mirroring the share price drop. Despite recent improvements in earnings, the stock's long-term weakness raises concerns. Investors experienced an 8.8% loss last year, contrasting with an 18% market gain. Analysts suggest monitoring valuation metrics and insider buying for potential recovery.
The main aim of stock picking is to find the market-beating stocks. But every investor is virtually certain to have both over-performing and under-performing stocks. So we wouldn't blame long term adidas AG (ETR:ADS) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 16% over a half decade. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 11% in the last three months.
Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.
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There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the five years over which the share price declined, adidas' earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 3.2% each year. This change in EPS is reasonably close to the 3% average annual decrease in the share price. This implies that the market has had a fairly steady view of the stock. Rather, the share price change has reflected changes in earnings per share.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We know that adidas has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think adidas will grow revenue in the future.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, adidas' TSR for the last 5 years was -12%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Investors in adidas had a tough year, with a total loss of 8.8% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 18%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 2% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. Before forming an opinion on adidas you might want to consider these 3 valuation metrics.
We will like adidas better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on German exchanges.
