篡改经济数据？市场反噬终将让特朗普自食苦果

Trump is paving the way to replace real economic data with his own fabricated data. This move is indeed a bad strategy; once implemented, it will backfire and cause damage to his presidency that no real data could compare to.

According to the latest employment report on August 1, which showed a sharp slowdown in hiring, Trump immediately fired the Chief Economist of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). However, the issue lies not with the data itself or its compilers, but with Trump's destructive policies that are disrupting the economy as expected: tariff barriers are raising costs and manufacturing inefficiencies; workplace raids targeting illegal immigrants are reducing labor supply, leaving many businesses in a labor shortage.

After firing BLS Director Erica Groshen, Trump accused her on social media of "manipulating" employment data to smear him, specifically pointing out that the employment data for May and June was revised down by 258,000, leading to an average job growth of only 35,000 over the past three months—80% lower than the average level at the end of Biden's presidency. This "report card" clearly makes Trump feel uncomfortable.

Of course, there are reasonable doubts about the quality of the BLS employment survey—these large surveys rely on accurate and complete responses from thousands of businesses and individuals, and the complex methodology combined with budget cuts from the Trump administration has increased the probability of errors. Data revisions are meant to improve accuracy; although the downward revision for May and June was significant, it is by no means unprecedented.

However, Trump avoids discussing this. The employment data has not been manipulated, and a few officials within the government who understand economics—Treasury Secretary Scott Basset and White House economist Kevin Hassett—should clarify this point to him.

As tariffs and immigration raids continue to stifle the economy, more unfavorable data may emerge. Trump seems to be aware of this, long contemplating how to fabricate "custom data" to beautify the economy. Throughout most of his second term, he has continuously attacked Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, demanding aggressive interest rate cuts and considering a replacement, even envisioning appointing a "shadow" chairman to issue more optimistic economic assessments than the Federal Reserve, or taking over when Powell's term ends in May next year.

Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is attempting to modify GDP accounting methods. In June, the BLS, responsible for inflation data, announced a reduction in the collection of price data from certain regions, and starting August 14, it will reduce the categories of wholesale price monitoring, blaming it on a lack of manpower—this is precisely the consequence of Trump's massive layoffs in the "Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)."

Trump does not hide his intention to control all government agencies, including those that should operate independently. By placing loyalists in charge of key departments and instructing them to beautify data, he could potentially hijack economic statistics. He clearly desires a Federal Reserve that obeys orders to stimulate the economy; if he completes his personnel arrangements during the remainder of his term, he may well get his wish.

However, if any of the above situations occur, they could have counterproductive effects, even leading to disaster.

The fundamental issue is: no one—including the president—can fool the market in the long term. Official data is indeed important, but businesses, investors, and consumers will also perceive the true pulse of the economy through a multitude of data points. Previous presidents have repeatedly attempted to fabricate a contrary narrative to convince voters that their situation is better than they believe, but they have never succeeded The working class is aware of the changes in the actual purchasing power of wages; companies are insightful about their order books and cash flow situations; investors buy and sell hedges based on price signals that the government cannot control. The bond market, as the ultimate arbiter of economic truth, has already raised a warning light on the "Trump economy": RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas pointed out that there is currently a "risk" or "fear" premium in the market, which has caused long-term interest rates to be about 0.65 percentage points higher than normal levels, reflecting investors' concerns about future inflation and policy uncertainty.

Although the current term premium has not reached historical peaks, it is already at a relatively high level in nearly 15 years. The abnormal phenomenon that occurred last autumn—when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 100 basis points while long-term rates rose by 100 basis points—foreshadows investors' expectations of rising inflation in the next 5-10 years. The bond market that Trump inherited was already one with indigestion, and his tariff policy, as an import tax, directly pushes up prices. Coupled with the U.S. government's borrowing scale approaching unsustainable levels, this could further push up long-term interest rates.

Ironically, even if Trump successfully coerces the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, long-term rates may rebound due to rising inflation expectations—contrary to his original intention of stimulating borrowing and consumption by lowering long-term rates. If there is an attempt to release false economic data, it will only exacerbate market uncertainty and further raise risk premiums. Brusuelas' research shows that over the past 25 years, risk premiums have repeatedly exceeded 2 percentage points. If this scenario reoccurs, the current 6.7% mortgage rate could soar to over 8%; if it reaches the 4% peak during the 2008 financial crisis, rates would exceed 10%—this is the market tsunami that data manipulation could trigger.

Will this lead to an economic recession? No one knows, but that may not be the key issue. The public's grievances in the U.S. fundamentally stem from disorder in economic governance and a sense of disillusionment with prosperity. Biden's bragging about job growth records has failed to convince anyone, and false data will only make matters worse—consumer confidence has long been in a recessionary zone over the past five years, and tampering with data will only deepen despair.

The truth has its own power, even for Trump