《大行》大摩升中国宏桥目标价至 26.4 元 维持「增持」评级

Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that it has updated the risk-return profile for CHINAHONGQIAO (01378.HK). Given the better price outlook entering the consumption peak season in September and October, the bank has raised its aluminum price assumptions; adjusting the aluminum price to an average of RMB 3,287 per ton, which has led to an improvement in the earnings contribution from the alumina sector. Morgan Stanley also increased the earnings contribution from joint ventures, reflecting better profitability from the Guinea bauxite joint venture and power plants, and expects this trend to continue in the second half of 2025.

Morgan Stanley stated that due to the recent conversion of most old batches of convertible bonds into equity shares, it has lowered its fair value change estimates for the second half of 2025. The exercise price of the new batch of convertible bonds is higher, which will mean that the impact of fair value changes on earnings will be smaller. Therefore, Morgan Stanley has raised its earnings per share forecast for CHINAHONGQIAO for 2025 to 2027 by 6%, with the target price increased by 6%, from HKD 24.8 to HKD 26.4, maintaining an "Overweight" rating