美股 Q2 财报季盈利表现亮眼！汇丰上调标普 500 年终目标至 6500 点

According to Zhitong Finance APP, after the S&P 500 delivered strong earnings performance in the second quarter, HSBC has raised its year-end target for this U.S. stock benchmark index to 6,500 points for 2025. Data shows that the S&P 500's earnings per share (EPS) grew by 12% year-on-year in the second quarter, marking the third consecutive quarter of double-digit percentage growth. Technology stocks—especially the "Seven Giants of U.S. Stocks"—drove most of the growth, with EPS increasing by about 25%, while other index constituents excluding technology stocks saw a 6% year-on-year EPS growth. Additionally, financial stocks also performed well, with EPS increasing by 12% year-on-year.

HSBC analysts stated, "Combining better-than-expected second-quarter performance with strong earnings momentum in a resilient macro backdrop, we have raised our EPS expectations for the S&P 500. We now expect a year-on-year EPS growth of 12% for the index in 2025, up from the previous 9%, and higher than the market's general expectation of 11%."

Analysts added that although the actual import tariff level is close to 19%, the impact of tariffs on corporate performance remains moderate. The net profit margin of the S&P 500 increased in the second quarter, reaching a four-year high. However, consumer-related sectors faced pressure, with profit margins declining by about 20 basis points. Analysts noted, "Companies facing tariff concerns are mainly concentrated in the consumer staples sector. In the second half of the year, we expect the overall profit margin of the S&P 500 to remain flat, as the strength of the technology and financial sectors offsets the pressures from the consumer staples/discretionary sectors."

Artificial Intelligence (AI) remains a driving force. Amazon (AMZN.US), Google's parent company Alphabet (GOOGL.US), Meta (META.US), and Microsoft (MSFT.US) have all maintained their capital expenditure guidance, with these four companies expected to reach $410 billion in capital expenditures by 2026, accounting for one-third of the total capital expenditures of S&P 500 constituent companies.

HSBC analysts stated, "Overall, market concentration is increasing, with the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 contributing about 32% of earnings, 38% of market capitalization, and 44% of market returns. However, we believe that the balance sheet strength of these companies and the entire S&P 500 index is sufficient to alleviate related concerns."

According to HSBC's view, potential risks in the future include a resurgence of inflation due to tariffs or tight labor supply, while positive factors include easing geopolitical concerns, resilience in economic growth, and productivity improvements brought by AI