Palantir 暴涨 2400% 后 分析师警告：未来 5 年可能 “白忙一场”

According to Zhitong Finance APP, since 2023, Palantir (PLTR.US) stock price has skyrocketed from $6 to $150, an increase of up to 2400%, creating an investment myth.

Now standing at the high of $150, many investors are asking: Is Palantir still worth buying? Analysts at The Motley Fool warn that Palantir's stock price is severely overvalued, and investors in this stock may be "wasting their time" over the next five years.

Accelerated Performance Growth

Palantir is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, with its software becoming one of the preferred choices for deploying AI technology in government and business sectors. Palantir initially designed products specifically for government use but later expanded into the commercial sector, achieving equally tremendous success.

The core idea of Palantir's products is to aggregate multiple data streams, utilize AI to process this information, and communicate the analysis results to decision-makers. This enables decision-makers to make informed decisions in real-time. Palantir also offers some products that can deploy AI agents throughout the enterprise, automating tasks traditionally performed by humans.

It is not difficult to see that this product can recover costs in the short term, as it enhances business execution while reducing operational costs. The product portfolio has enabled Palantir to achieve astonishing growth rates over the past few years, with the second quarter setting a record for growth.

In the second quarter, Palantir's commercial revenue grew by 47% year-on-year, reaching $451 million. The way American companies adopt AI differs from the deployment methods of international companies, resulting in a significantly higher growth rate for U.S. business. U.S. commercial revenue growth surged by 93% year-on-year, indicating that if international companies deploy Palantir's technology at a similar pace, it could lead to tremendous growth potential. Both domestic and international government business revenues performed strongly, growing by 49% to $553 million.

Palantir has clearly achieved success in its business and has significant growth potential, but what impact will all this have on the company's stock price?

Overvaluation Overdrafts the Future

Any investment theory consists of two parts: expected growth and current stock price. Even if a company expects to double its revenue every year for the next decade, if the purchase price is too high, the stock could still be a poor investment. The Motley Fool analyst Keithen Drury believes that Palantir falls into this category, as its stock price is incredibly expensive.

Palantir's stock price-to-sales ratio is as high as 115 times, and its expected price-to-earnings ratio is as high as 244 times.

Few companies can reach such a high valuation level. Palantir's stock price has already reflected most of its growth potential.

Assuming that in the next five years, Palantir's revenue continues to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50%, with a profit margin of 35%, and the number of shares remains unchanged. This is a very optimistic assumption, as achieving a continuous 50% growth rate for five years is a feat that is difficult for most companies to accomplish.

Moreover, Wall Street analysts expect Palantir's revenue growth rate next year to reach 35%, far below the growth rate set above. Palantir has also experienced significant dilution of shareholder equity, with its number of shares increasing by 4.6% over the past year.

But even if we do not consider how optimistic these forecasts are, Palantir's stock still struggles to deliver returns for investors.

If Palantir can achieve all of the above goals, its revenue will reach $26.1 billion, far exceeding the current total revenue of $3.3 billion. If the profit margin is 35%, Palantir's profit will reach $9.1 billion. Based on the current market capitalization, the expected price-to-earnings ratio is about 41 times, and Palantir's stock price should currently be at this level.

Therefore, Drury believes that Palantir's stock price will remain unchanged or decline over the next five years. Palantir's current valuation is based on unrealistic expectations. Palantir's stock is too expensive, limiting its future upside potential. In summary, Palantir's stock price appears to be severely overvalued