《大行》摩通上调对阿里健康收入及经调整盈利预测 目标价上调至 6.5 元

JP Morgan published a report stating that Alibaba Health (00241.HK) stock price has increased by approximately 27% since the announcement of its fiscal year 2025 results in May, surpassing its peers by 8 percentage points. The bank believes this is mainly due to investors' positive reaction to the recent updates in online retail sales policies for prescription drugs. Given that this is essentially a guideline with no substantial differences from existing policies, the impact is considered to be more on the emotional level. The bank believes that the synergy with Taobao's fast e-commerce will remain a key focus for the first half of the current fiscal year ending in September, specifically including growth in users and order volume, potential investment scale and forms, and user churn after subsidy normalization.

The bank has raised its revenue forecasts for Alibaba Health for the current and next fiscal years by 4% each, reflecting the synergy in user traffic and overall gross merchandise volume with Taobao's fast e-commerce, and has also raised its adjusted earnings per share forecasts for the current and next fiscal years by 3% and 4% respectively, reflecting the marketing savings brought by Taobao's high subsidies for fast e-commerce, partially offset by investments caused by business collaboration. The target price has been raised from HKD 5 to HKD 6.5, equivalent to a projected price-to-sales ratio of 2.5 times for the current fiscal year, maintaining a "Neutral" rating