美联储历次降息后各类资产表现真相：A 股石油石化行业相对抗跌

On the 17th local time, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate to between 4.00% and 4.25%, in line with market expectations. This marks the Fed's first interest rate cut in nine months since December 2024. Statistics show that since 2000, the Fed has cut rates 32 times, with a higher probability of declines in the Dow Jones and S&P 500 on the day of the announcement; out of the 32 cuts, there were 18 declines. The Nasdaq saw an equal number of ups and downs. The short-term trend of the three major U.S. stock indices after each rate cut has not been clear. On the next trading day of the A-shares after the Fed's rate cut announcement, the major A-share indices generally declined. After the previous 31 rate cuts, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 17 times, with an average decline of 0.25%; the Shenzhen Component Index also fell 17 times, with an average decline of 0.28%. By industry, on the next A-share trading day after each rate cut, the A-share industry indices showed more declines than increases. On average, only the oil and petrochemical industry index had a positive average, rising by 0.11%. Among other industries, basic chemicals, computers, social services, home appliances, and communications were relatively resilient, with average declines within 0.15%; food and beverage, building materials, and electronics performed poorly, with average declines exceeding 0.4%. In terms of commodities, the spot price of gold in London, representing precious metals, showed significant increases during the rate cut cycle, with the most notable increase occurring from September 18, 2024, to the present, rising by 48.94%. In contrast, LME copper, representing industrial metals, and WTI crude oil, representing energy, primarily experienced declines. The trend of the U.S. dollar generally aligns with the Fed's rate cut cycle. During the rate cut cycles since 2000, the U.S. dollar index has generally shown declines or maintained low levels