《大行》高盛升特斯拉目标价至 395 美元 维持「中性」评级

Goldman Sachs' research report indicates that ahead of Tesla's (TSLA.US) third-quarter delivery report, it reviewed regional vehicle sales data and raised its vehicle sales forecasts for the third and fourth quarters of 2025; it also adjusted its energy business assumptions for 2026 to 2027 to reflect recent product and capacity news.

For vehicle deliveries, Goldman Sachs now expects 455,000 units in the third quarter and 450,000 units in the fourth quarter; the 2026 forecast remains unchanged at 1.865 million units, maintaining a "neutral" rating on the stock. In the long term, Goldman Sachs expects Tesla's earnings per share to grow, partly driven by increased contributions from autonomous driving and robotics, although the firm is more cautious in its baseline earnings expectations for these areas compared to the company's targets.

Goldman Sachs estimates that Tesla's earnings per share could range from about $2 to $3 to $20 by 2030. Given the overall rise in market multiples, it believes the business can support long-term growth, and with the upward revision of future earnings per share forecasts, it raised the 12-month target price from $300 to $395. If Tesla can capture excess market share in areas such as humanoid robots and autonomous driving, the target price could increase, although it could decrease if competition limits profitability (as seen in the Chinese ADAS market) or if Tesla underperforms.

Overall, Goldman Sachs raised its earnings per share forecasts for Tesla for 2025 to 2027 to $1.15, $1.95, and $3 (previously $1.08, $1.85, and $2.9), primarily driven by better vehicle deliveries in 2025 and improvements in energy revenue and profits in 2026 and 2027