理解市场 | 中远海能涨近 5% VLCC 运价近期强势上涨 油运供需格局有望持续改善
COSCO SHIPPING Energy's stock price rose nearly 5%, up 4.92% as of the time of writing, at HKD 9.59, with a trading volume of HKD 319 million. Recently, VLCC freight rates have surged, with the Clarksons VLCC-TCE index reaching USD 78,000, an increase of 39% week-on-week. Analysts believe that oil shipping demand is influenced by increased crude oil production and sanctions from Europe and the United States, and the supply-demand pattern is expected to continue improving. It is anticipated that tanker freight rates will further rebound, with each increase of USD 10,000/day in VLCC-TCE bringing a marginal benefit of HKD 952 million to the company, and investors are advised to pay attention
According to Zhitong Finance APP, COSCO SHIPPING Energy (01138) rose nearly 5%, as of the time of writing, it increased by 4.92%, trading at HKD 9.59, with a transaction volume of HKD 319 million.
In terms of news, recently, VLCC freight rates have surged. On September 12, the Clarkson VLCC-TCE index was USD 78,000, a week-on-week increase of 39%. Dongguan Securities analysis believes that the recent rise in oil shipping freight rates is stimulated by the increase in crude oil production and the decline in oil prices, as well as the dual impact of increased sanctions from Europe and the United States boosting the demand for compliant oil tankers. In the long term, global crude oil prices are expected to decline further under the background of the United States and OPEC+ entering a production increase cycle, continuously stimulating oil shipping demand. Currently, the overall age of the tanker fleet is relatively high, and if the U.S. and Europe intensify sanctions on the gray market, it may lead to the clearance of old vessel capacity and reduce industry supply. The supply-demand pattern in the oil shipping industry is expected to continue to improve.
Recently, Industrial Securities pointed out that from the perspective of transportation demand, the operating rate of major refineries in China has recovered somewhat, and OPEC+ has continued to increase production since April, with oil prices generally maintaining a downward trend, leading to a potential recovery in oil shipping demand. On the supply side, the aging of the tanker fleet continues, and organizations such as the EU and IMO are establishing a more stringent carbon tax system for ships. Additionally, since 2025, the U.S. has been continuously intensifying sanctions against Russia and Iran, facing further clearance on the supply side of tankers. With supply tightening and demand warming, tanker freight rates are expected to rise further; according to the company's promotional materials, for every increase of USD 10,000/day in VLCC-TCE, the company is expected to gain a marginal benefit of HKD 952 million, suggesting that investors continue to pay attention
