《市评》港股靠稳观望浓厚 商汤、华虹及濠赌股走强

In the market's wait-and-see mode regarding whether the leaders of the U.S. and China will have a phone call tonight, Hong Kong stocks fluctuated and stabilized today (19th). The market digested the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates for the first time this year and that there will still be two rate cuts within the year. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq both rose 0.3% and 0.9% respectively to reach historical highs on the night of the 18th. At the time of writing, the yield on U.S. 2-year bonds rose to 3.576%, the yield on U.S. 10-year bonds rose to 4.125%, and the U.S. dollar index rose to 97.57. The latest Dow futures fell by 3 points, and Nasdaq futures fell by 22 points or 0.09%. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated throughout the day, falling 11 points or 0.3% to close at 3,820 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index slightly fell by 0.04%. The total transaction volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.32 trillion yuan.

The Hang Seng Index opened 38 points higher but initially fell by 130 points to a low of 26,414 points. It later rose by 92 points to a high of 26,637 points, closing with a gain of less than 1 point at 26,545 points. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 15 points or 0.17% to close at 9,472 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 23 points or 0.4% to close at 6,294 points. The total transaction volume for the day was 376.812 billion yuan. The total transaction volume of northbound trading was 153.72 billion yuan, while southbound funds had a net inflow of 9.838 billion yuan today (compared to a net inflow of 6.288 billion yuan the previous day). The Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800.HK) slightly rose by 0.07%, with a transaction volume of 22.79 billion yuan. Alibaba (09988.HK) rose by 0.4% to close at 159.1 yuan, with a transaction volume of 22.17 billion yuan. Sunac Holdings (00412.HK) was named by the Securities and Futures Commission for its highly concentrated shareholding, causing its stock price to plummet by 76%, with a transaction volume of 5.965 billion yuan.

The Hang Seng Index rose a total of 156 points or 0.6% this week, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose a total of 107 points or 1.1% this week, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose a total of 305 points or 5.1% this week. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its first rate cut since December of last year in the middle of the week, lowering the benchmark overnight rate by a quarter of a percentage point. However, some brokerages indicated that the "dot plot" shows a majority leaning towards "gradual easing." The Ministry of Commerce stated that China and the U.S. have reached a basic framework consensus on properly resolving the TikTok issue, and the market is watching whether the two leaders will speak on Friday. Southbound funds had a net inflow of 36.85 billion yuan this week (compared to a net inflow of 60.822 billion yuan last week).

【Market Watchful, SenseTime Supported】

Chip stocks continued to rise, with SMIC (00981.HK) and Hua Hong (01347.HK) rising by 0.4% and 4.1%. SenseTime (00020.HK) saw its stock price rise nearly 4.6% to close at 2.74 yuan, with a transaction volume of 5.1 billion yuan.

HSBC Global Research released a report stating that SenseTime's stock price has risen in recent months, which they believe is partly driven by SenseTime's "1+X" strategic transformation, and also benefited from improved market sentiment and capital inflow into the AI sector. However, they believe the group still faces potential adverse factors. The group's computing power growth is slowing, and they believe that computing power resources are becoming increasingly scarce. If SenseTime cannot ensure more chip supply through building artificial intelligence data centers or collaborating with external chip suppliers, it may face potential bottlenecks in the future The bank raised the target price for SenseTime from HKD 1.7 to HKD 3.1, but maintained a "Hold" rating due to ongoing pressure on gross margins and competition.

【One in a thousand stocks fell, gaming stocks strengthened】

The Hong Kong stock market saw a slight improvement today, with a rise and fall ratio of main board stocks at 22 to 27 (compared to 17 to 34 yesterday). There were 1,105 declining stocks (a drop of 2.5%). Among the Hang Seng Index constituent stocks, 42 rose and 44 fell, with a rise and fall ratio of 48 to 50 (compared to 9 to 87 yesterday). The market recorded short selling of HKD 52.461 billion today, accounting for 15.367% of the total turnover of shortable stocks at HKD 341.376 billion (compared to 13.591% yesterday).

Gaming stocks rose, with Melco International (00200.HK), Wynn Macau (01128.HK), and Sands China (01928.HK) increasing by 6% to 6.6%. Galaxy Entertainment (00027.HK) and MGM China (02282.HK) rose by 4.2% and 5%, respectively. Duty-free shop China Duty Free Group (01880.HK) rose by 4.1%.

Barclays recently released a report, raising its forecast for Macau's gaming revenue this year by 6% to MOP 246 billion (USD 31 billion), mainly benefiting from strong growth momentum, robust visitor arrivals, and an improved macro environment. The bank's forecast is now higher than the Macau government's expectations. The reasons for the upward revision include strong visitor arrivals, benefits from major events and concerts, and the gradual opening of new integrated resort projects. On the macro front, the stabilization of the Chinese economy, improved consumer sentiment, a booming stock market creating a wealth effect, easing geopolitical tensions, and policy support (including the relaxation of visa restrictions to Macau for security reasons in some Southeast Asian countries) all contribute to growth. The VIP room business rebounded, while the high-end mass market remained strong