荷兰国际：短期内对美债持中性观点 寻找机会做空 10 年期美债

ING Groep's interest rate strategists currently maintain a neutral stance on U.S. Treasuries in the short term. They point out that the core PCE month-on-month increase announced on Friday may be relatively moderate, expected to be 0.2%. This data could boost market optimism in the short term, pushing U.S. Treasury yields lower. Strategists expect that by 2026, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will rise to 4.5%. "We are looking for an opportunity to shift to a more bearish position on 10-year U.S. Treasuries at the right time," they explained, noting that the Federal Reserve has not shown much concern about the economic growth outlook, and the latest unemployment claims data also indicate that the current job market outlook is not bleak. Meanwhile, inflation data is expected to start rising, and supply-side pressures remain persistent. Taken together, these factors point towards an upward direction for yields