TACO 交易再现？特朗普关税言辞缓和，美国股指期货反弹、金银价格徘徊历史高位
Due to the easing rhetoric on tariffs from Trump, U.S. stock index futures surged, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 index contracts rising more than 1%. Meanwhile, silver and gold prices soared due to increased market demand for safe-haven assets, with silver prices rising 1.1% to $51 per ounce, and gold prices hitting a new high of $4,060 per ounce. The market's reaction to trade tensions led to a significant increase in precious metal prices, while risk assets were impacted
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, U.S. President Trump has expressed a willingness to negotiate with China, leading to a rise in U.S. stock index futures and a rebound in oil prices. Previously, market sentiment was impacted due to a sharp escalation in trade tensions, but this news has improved market sentiment. The contracts for the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq 100 index rose by more than 1%.
U.S. Treasury futures prices fell, oil prices rose by more than 1%, and cryptocurrencies rebounded strongly after last Friday's sell-off. Meanwhile, London experienced a historic silver short squeeze, and trade tensions stirred the market, causing the price of the precious metal silver to approach historical highs, while gold prices also reached new highs.
Silver prices rose by 1.1%, reaching a high of $51 per ounce, while the prices of platinum and palladium both increased by more than 2%. Gold prices hit a new high of $4,060 per ounce, marking the eighth consecutive week of gains prior to last Friday.
Recently, the market's most direct response to trade tensions has been the surge in safe-haven assets like precious metals and the decline in risk assets. Since the market crash triggered by tariffs in April, the S&P 500 index has surged significantly, driven by optimistic expectations for artificial intelligence and hopes for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The current valuation of the index is close to its highest level in 25 years, making it very vulnerable to negative news. Last Friday, after Trump issued a tariff threat, the three major U.S. stock indices plummeted.
This year, precious metal prices have risen sharply, dominating the commodity market. The demand for safe-haven assets has been influenced by the repeated impacts of U.S.-China trade frictions, threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve, and the U.S. government shutdown.
As the U.S. government’s so-called "232 investigation" into critical minerals (including silver, platinum, and palladium) is nearing its end, traders remain on edge. Concerns that these metals may be affected by Trump's tariff policies have further exacerbated market supply tightness, which has contributed to the rise in silver prices following a significant reduction in the availability of freely supplied resources in the London market.
Due to concerns about insufficient liquidity in the London market, silver prices are approaching the record of $52.50 per ounce set in 1980. The benchmark prices in London have risen significantly, far exceeding those in New York, prompting some traders to book cargo space on transatlantic flights to transport silver bars—a costly shipping method typically reserved for more valuable gold, aimed at profiting from the substantial premium in the London market Dilin Wu, a strategist at Pepperstone Group, stated: "The market is currently discussing whether the latest round of tariff shocks will actually occur. If this is just a negotiation tactic, the current pullback may become a good opportunity for 'bottom fishing.' However, if the tariffs take effect, it could lead to a new round of volatility and a reassessment of global risks."
