《大行》大和料新秀丽第三季收入跌幅收窄 目标价微升至 16 元

According to a report by Daiwa, due to the low base effect, it is expected that Samsonite (01910.HK) will see a narrowing decline in revenue of 1.4% in the third quarter, in line with management guidance. The firm also anticipates an overall improvement in Tumi's performance, while American Tourister remains the weakest-performing brand.

Due to changes in regional structure and operational deleveraging, the firm expects adjusted EBITDA profit margins to remain under pressure; it forecasts that the gross profit margin and adjusted EBITDA profit margin will decline by 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, to 58.6% and 17%, respectively.

Regarding the turnaround of the Indian business in 2026, the firm holds a cautiously optimistic view, as the major local competitors have completed significant restructuring, which is expected to lead to more rational market competition. The firm also believes that the dual listing plan in the United States is still progressing, but it may not be realized until mid-2026 at the earliest.

The firm has lowered its earnings per share forecast for Samsonite in 2025 by 2%, but based on a potentially stronger recovery in the Asian and North American markets, it has raised its earnings per share forecast for 2026 by 3%; it maintains a "Hold" rating due to the current lack of catalysts and low visibility. However, the firm believes that with continued support from global travel demand, a stronger recovery is expected in 2026; the target price has been slightly raised from 15 to 16 HKD